Week Ending 19th September 2025

Dear patrons, the saying "No news is good news" came true for the markets last week. In a slow news week, the markets rallied slowly but steadily to conquer 25400 on the Nifty. BankNifty also rallied steadily to touch 55800. 

Domestically, new GST rates kick in from Monday amid start of big festive season. We should be able to see the change in consumption in a couple of months. The key worry for the markets, however, remains the INR-USD relation. The INR managed to gain some strength after touching lifetime low levels. The Dollar Index on the other hand, has gone to multi month low.

After almost a fortnight of peace, the US strikes again, this time with exorbitant increase in H1-B visa fees. In our opinion, Indian IT companies may face some near-term pain due to this increase in visa fees. In the longer run, however, this move should prove to be a blessing in disguise for the Indian IT and services industry.

Globally, US markets were in buoyant mood last week on account of interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. European and Asian markets were also positive. The party in the US markets may be coming to an end in near future and focus on emerging markets should increase again.

Let us now take a look at charts and try to figure out what lies in store for the coming week.

As we can see in the above pic. Nifty moved steadily upwards towards 25450, as mentioned these levels in our previous blog. You may read it here (Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 12th September 2025). For the coming week Nifty faces resistance around 25450-25500. Crossing 25500 should lead the Nifty towards 25700-25800. Support on the other hand is placed around 25200-25100 below which it may drift towards 25000-24900. We expect the Nifty to consolidate in the coming week in a broad range of 25500-24900.

Coming to BankNifty, it has moved up more than 1% over the last week. It faces resistance around 55800-55900, while support is placed around 55000. Strong support for BankNifty lies around 24500. We expect BankNifty to outperform Nifty in the coming week.

The MIDCAP index also gained substantially in the last week. We expect Mid-Caps to outperform the large caps in coming days. Resistance for MIDCAP 100 lies around 59500 while support is placed around 58500.

Investors may focus on select mid cap stock for outperformance. Accumulating good quality stocks remains the mantra for achieving good returns on investment. 

Investing is lifelong education where each mistake, success and market cycle adds to learning. The best investors stay curious, humble and adaptable, evolving with changing conditions instead of assuming markets will always behave in the same manner.

Traders should find ample opportunity in the markets on either side. Traders are, however advised to remain alert to movement in the markets and adhere to strict stop losses as well as targets.

Stay Invested!!!

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 12th September 2025

Dear patrons, first of all let me apologize for not writing this blog last week due to some unavoidable circumstances. Indian markets managed to regain psychologically important level of 25000 on the Nifty while BankNifty remained subdued ending yet another week below 55000. Markets managed to close positive on all sessions gaining slow momentum.

Reduction in GST, softening POTUS stand along with Indian investors' appetite for stocks provided the much-required push for the markets to inch higher. As we had mentioned in our previous blog, reduction in GST is aimed at increasing domestic consumption. timing of reduction could not have been better, as the festive season begins, it is an attempt to wake up the domestic consumer from his slumber.

Globally, the US markets rallied on expectation of faster and larger rate cuts from the Federal Reserve owing to poor jobs data. All three major indices on the NYSE hit lifetime highs yet again, although the last session saw some profit booking. European counterparts followed cues from the US markets and rallied. Asian markets remained pretty buoyant as well.

Gold and Silver are glittering like never before, conquering newer highs each passing day. Upward momentum in Gold can be attributed to geopolitical maneuvers, as the BRICS wants to end the USD hegemony.

The US is sending feelers through social media for betterment of ties with India. After all the bravado of threats of destroying the FOURTH largest economy, better sense is prevailing in the US, contributing partially to the rally in Indian markets.

Let's now take a look at charts and try to figure out what lies in store for the coming week.

Nifty managed to close above 25100 for the week, gaining more than 1%. We expect Nifty to continue its forward journey with a mild resistance around 25150-25200. Nifty looks set to move towards 25400-25500 for the coming week. Support on the other hand is placed around 24800-24900. Strong support for Nifty lies in the 24500-24600 range.

BankNifty also gained more than 1% over the week without showing much hassle for it. BankNifty has underperformed the broader markets over last few weeks. We believe time is ripe for it to start marching forward. BankNifty closed the week a tad below its 100 EMA. For the coming week support for BankNifty lies in 54500-54600 range. Resistance lies around 55500. Strong resistance may be encountered around 55900-56000.

Coming to midcap index, it looks poised for a considerable up move. Resistance for MIDCAP 100 is placed around 58800, crossing this level should take it to 59800. Support on the other hand is placed around 57600 below which 56900 should act as strong support.

Investors should look to accumulate good quality stocks. There may be short term pain, but eventually the reward will out do the pain. Focusing on select midcap stocks should prove to be more rewarding than large cap stocks. Select sectoral indices are also looking good.

Stay Invested!!!

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 29th August 2025

Dear patrons, the US tariffs on India became applicable in the week gone by. One of the highest tariff rates has been levied on India. Although we are very confident that India will emerge out of this "harakiri" by the US administration, stronger, however, near-term jitters may be felt, particularly in the stock markets.

Indian markets were firmly in bear grip over the truncated week, benchmark Nifty lost close to 2% and closed around 24400. BankNifty was weaker and lost close to 3% and closed well below 54000. In our view there are more than one reasons for this fall. Tariffs have played their part in this fall, the bigger worry for the markets is the USD-INR relation. The INR has been losing ground consistently over last few days and has reached historic low levels. As long as INR remains weak, chances of rally in the markets remain grim.

Indian GDP numbers were announced on August 29th and to the surprise of most analysts and some dolts sitting outside the country, it grew by a whopping 7.8% for Q1 FY2026. The GDP growth is at a multi-year high. India remains world's fastest growing big economy. We believe, Indian economy will outdo other major economies in terms of growth driven by very strong domestic consumption. On the flip side this robust growth and low inflation may prompt the RBI to hold interest rate status quo in coming MPC meet.

Globally, markets remained quite buoyant. The US indices have again managed to reach new life-time highs, while Asian markets remained rangebound. A lot of topsy turvy moves look to be in store as geopolitical situations evolve and American hegemony is challenged.  We believe, it is just a passing phase, and things should normalize in coming days.

Let's take a look at charts and try to figure out what lies in store for the coming week.

As we can see Nifty fell on 3 out of four trading sessions. Nifty broke its important support around 24600. The signs are not good on Nifty, and we may see further slide in coming days towards 24000. If a good set of GDP numbers add some enthusiasm, it may rally towards 24800, which should act as resistance. Beyond 24800 it may move towards 25200-25300 in a jiffy. A break below 24000 may lead to more pain and Nifty may slide towards 23200-23300 range.

BankNifty remained weaker of the two and lost more ground. Immediate support for BankNifty lies around 53500-53600. Move below 53500 may trigger another 1000 point cut on BankNifty. On the upside, resistance is placed around 54900-55000. Beyond 55000 we should witness a strong rally in BankNifty.

Nifty Midcap 100 index also bled profusely over the last week losing more than 3%. It should find support around 55100-55000 while resistance is placed around 56800-56900. It needs to move above 57200 for any worthwhile rally.

Now that derivatives contract expiry and tariffs are out of the way, markets should find some stability. Traders need to be nimble footed and adhere to strict stop losses. Investors may look to buy good quality stock in each dip.

Long term story for India remains intact.

Stay Invested!!!!

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 22nd August 2025

Dear patrons, amidst geopolitical activity and domestic reforms announced on Independence Day, the markets gained some lost ground over last couple of weeks. Benchmark Nifty closed positive on 4 out of the five sessions. However, end of week session saw bears getting the better of bulls squandering half of the gains accumulated over four sessions.

Globally, the US and Russian presidents met for a solution to the ongoing crisis, but the meeting was inconclusive. Although both parties agreed to meet again to arrive at a solution. The US indices were a mixed bag over the week but ended on a strong note on expectation of interest rate cut earlier than anticipated.

Domestically, India's PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) surged to 65.2 in August. Manufacturing and Services sector contributed most to the PMI with robust growth. Services PMI touched an all-time high at 65.6. Overall, August PMI saw a healthy growth of over 6% compared to July

Let's take a look at charts and try to figure out moves for the coming week.

As stated in the previous blog Nifty found resistance around 25100-25200 (you may read it here Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 15th August 2025). Nifty after a gap up on Monday moved northwards and crossed 25000 to touch a high of 25153 and saw a sharp turn around to close the week below 24900. For the coming week 25100-25200 remains a stiff resistance zone. Support for Nifty is placed around 24800 followed by strong support around 24600. Coming week being expiry week for derivatives contract is expected to remain volatile with a positive bias. 

Coming to BankNifty, it was the weaker of the two benchmark indices. BankNifty was firmly in bear grip and closed the week down quarter of a percent. BankNifty has support around 55000 which should prove to be difficult to break on a closing basis. Resistance for BankNifty is placed around 55700-55800. It needs to close above 56600 for any meaningful up move.

Almost all sectoral indices were in the red on Friday, presenting a good opportunity for investors to accumulate quality stocks. Diversification of portfolio is the key to making more gains and mitigating risk. FMCG and Auto were two sectors where there was positive action. This move was on account of GST rejig and steps being taken to increase consumption.

Traders are advised caution for the coming week. Markets are likely to be volatile and extreme moves on either side can't be ruled out. Risk management and adhering to rules strictly is needed. 

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 15th August 2025

Dear patrons, in a truncated week the Indian markets traded within a range but near the lower end of trading range. Benchmark Nifty closed the week more than 1% positive while BankNifty ended the week with close to 0.50% gain. 

Globally, the US markets were bullish, and all major indices made new lifetime highs during the week. Geopolitical tensions are easing with the US and Russian president meeting for a ceasefire talk. Though the meeting was inconclusive, there was no untoward statement from either leader.

Domestically, in his Independence Day speech the PM announced certain measures to unleash domestic consumption lead growth story. In his speech the PM hinted at reforms in the Goods and Services Tax, after 8 years of launch. It is believed that there will be only two slabs of GST from Diwali. Further. there was more focus on innovation during his speech, where he urged Indian industry to become self-reliant.

India has always been a consumption economy, with domestic leading growth. We believe, lowering of GST will lead to prices coming down for consumers and more consumption. Inflation being quite docile should spur domestic consumption. US tariffs have acted as a blessing in disguise or as the PM says "Aapda me Awasar", prompting the GoI to act on reforms.

Coming back to the markets, the AMFI (Association of Mutual Funds in India) declared July numbers are they are extremely encouraging. Details are mentioned below.

SIP record levels at Rs 28,464cr vs Rs 27269cr MoM

Inflow at `178794 cr vs Inflow at `49095cr   MoM

Equity Inflow at `42702 cr vs Inflow at `23587cr   MoM

Total AUM at `75.4 lk cr vs `74.4lk cr  MoM

Equity AUM at `33.3 lk cr vs `33.5lk cr MoM

IMPACT

Midcap inflows rise 38% at Rs 5182cr MoM

Smallcap inflows up 61% at Rs 6484cr MoM

Except ELSS all equity schemes show inflows for second straight month

Strong inflows for Large Cap, Multicap segment

Sectoral Fund flows at Rs 9426cr vs Rs 476cr MoM

Flexicap Funds inflows jump 34% at Rs 7654cr

FACTORS

Equity inflows come all-time high levels -above Rs 42K CR

Overall-Flows increase due liquid, money-market, equity segment

Equity segment saw inflows for 53rd straight month

Equity AUM/Total AUM at record high levels

NFOs inflows at Rs 30416cr vs Rs 1986cr (MoM)

Rating agency S&P Global upgrades India’s sovereign rating to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB-’ due to policy continuity, robust growth and fiscal management. This upgrade comes after a whopping 18 years. India is well and truly on the path of growth.

Let's now look at the charts and try to figure out market moves for the coming week.

As we can see, Nifty remained in a range for the entire week, trading close to lower levels of a trading band. It managed to, however, close above its 100 EMA on the last trading session. For the coming week 24400 should act as strong support while immediate resistance lies around 24750. If Nifty manages to close above 24750, then 25100-25200 will act as major hurdle. Close above 25300 is needed for Nifty to move towards its lifetime high levels.

BankNifty has been trading in a tighter range compared to Nifty. It has managed to hold on to its 100 EMA. 54900 is strong support for BankNifty, while 55800-56000 should act as strong resistance. Move above 56000 should lead BankNifty towards new lifetime high levels

The mantra for investors as always remains to accumulate good quality stocks in every dip. Traders may look to grab short term gains in these volatile times, adhering to strict stop losses.

Stay Invested!!!

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending August 08th 2025

Dear patrons, amidst the heightening tariff war between India and the US, markets traded mostly negatively to end the 7th consecutive week in the red. Benchmark Nifty lost close to 1%, most of which was due to losses on Friday. BankNifty also lost around 1% during the week.

In our view, Indian exporters will find a way out to export to the US circumventing tariffs. One of them would be to export from other Asian countries, who have a lot less tariff. Indian ingenuity or Jugaad WILL find a way to remain relevant in these tough times.

Biggest reason for markets falling is continuous weakness in the INR against USD. Loss in INR prompts selling by FIIs though DIIs remained consistent buyers. The MPC (Monetary Policy committee) meet failed to enthuse markets by maintaining status quo in interest rates.

Globally, US markets remained bullish with Nasdaq making yet another new lifetime high. European markets were also quite buoyant over the week. The tariff war, however, is on the rise with many European countries cancelling their deals with US corporates.

Let's take a look at charts and try to figure out market moves for the coming week.

Nifty closed below a very important support of 24400. Indicators are indicating further downward movement in Nifty, however, there is always light at the end of the tunnel. The light here being extremely low long positions of the FIIs on Nifty futures, oversold Put Call ratio and consistent DII buying. 24150-24100 should act as strong support for Nifty and 24600-24700 should act resistance. Markets are looking over sold and we may witness sharp short covering lead rally in coming days.

BankNifty managed to close above its important support of 54900. We expect BankNifty to lead any rally, if there is one. It has managed to close above its support on both daily as well as weekly charts. For the coming week 55500-55600 should act as major hurdle for BankNifty. 54500-54400 should act as a strong support.

Long term investors should look to accumulate good quality stocks in each dip in the markets. Traders need to be cautious and adhere to strict stop losses. Ample opportunity should be available on either side for traders. Discipline and Risk Management are a must to make money in the markets.

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending August 1st 2025

Dear patrons, in an eventful week the markets were firmly in the grip of bears to end the week more than 1% down. Nifty fell for the 5th straight week, marking its longest weekly losing streak in 2025. Nifty Midcap, SmallCap, IT, Realty, PSU Bank, Energy and Auto indices also declined. FMCG emerged as the top gainer, while IT saw its steepest weekly fall of 2025. Monthly chart signals bearish engulfing.

India’s market cap to GDP ratio at 136.8% is near a 20-year high, signaling the market has outpaced economic growth. Valuations remain elevated while earnings have not caught up. On the IIP front though, the Indian industry growth shrunk to 1.5% from 4.9% YoY, showing a major slowdown in activity. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) though, remains bullish on the Indian economy. In its recent update the IMF raised India's growth projection by 20 bps for the current fiscal and by 10 bps for the next. India remains the "Fastest Growing" large economy in the world.

Globally, the US markets had a mixed week. The S&P and Nasdaq were again very bullish, making new lifetime highs on multiple occasions. On the last trading session of the week the US markets fell sharply on account of very weak jobs data. The weak data may prompt the FED to cut interest rates sooner than expected.

Domestically, major reason for fall in the markets remains FII selling. FIIs have been selling Indian stocks relentlessly, while domestic institutions remained consistent buyers to support the markets. Falling INR against the USD provides further impetus to FII selling. The INR fell sharply last week to within touching distance to its recent low levels. The MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meet begins on Monday, and its results are expected on Wednesday. We do not expect much action from the RBI this time around. However, a surprise can't be ruled out as inflation is within the RBI's comfort level and there is a need to provide impetus to industrial growth.

Let us now take a look at the charts and try to figure out movement for the coming week.

Nifty closed a tad below its important support around 24600 on daily charts while just a tad above support on weekly charts. We do not expect big downward movement from these levels and expect a turnaround in Nifty. A close below 24400 however, may lead to further fall towards 24000-23900, while Nifty needs to close above 24800 for any meaningful up move to take place. A move above 25000 is needed for the first signs of getting out of the woods for the Nifty.

BankNifty has been weaker of the two benchmark indices. It has closed below its crucial support level of 56000 on couple of session marking distinct weakness. In coming days BankNifty should find support near 54900-55000 while 56500-56600 should act as stiff resistance.

Sectoral indices barring FMCG bored the brunt of sell off on Friday. Investors should look to accumulate good quality stocks in every dip. A well-diversified portfolio provides a cushion against erratic movements in the markets.

Traders are advised caution in the eventful week. Banking and NBFC stocks may see wild moves owing to MPC decision. Stay nimble footed and adhere to strict stop losses.

Stay Invested!!!

"In commodities, when prices go up, demand goes down. In stocks, when prices go up, demand goes up"~ Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

US TARIFF AND INDIAN MARKETS

Dear patrons, the long pending trade deal between India and the US has culminated into the US imposing 25% tariff on India and penalizing it for buying energy from Russia. India and US have been at loggerheads for the trade deal with an eye on the deadline (set by US president) of 1st August. Indian delegation also visited the US, but the deal failed to take off. How much of an impact will the new tariff regime have on India and how will the markets take it?

In our opinion Indian economy is very resilient and is driven by domestic consumption more than exports. IMF in its recent report has increased its forecast on growth of Indian economy from 6.2% to 6.4% for FY26. India remains the fastest growing big economy in the world. Indian exports to US are a meagre 2% of its GDP, that too mostly in ultra luxury items like diamonds. Bulk of Indian exports to US are in pharma which is exempt from tariff. Sure enough, some exporters will face hard time due to these tariffs but the overall picture doesn't look that bad either.

India is also being penalized for buying energy from Russia. This step is absolutely uncalled for and proves the US hegemony. India, by buying Russian oil has managed to keep the global economy, including the US economy, afloat. Had India not bought the cheap Russian oil, crude oil prices would be on the boil by now, endangering global growth. US would be grappling with high inflation and the FED would be in no position to cut interest rates. US should be grateful to India for saving its economy.

How would markets react? In our view, Indian markets after a small jitter, should shake off this tariff thing and things should be normal in no time. Markets have a habit of not liking uncertainties, now that the lead is off the tariff stuff markets should normalize. Moreover, as per Dow theory, "Markets discount all information". In our view markets have discounted the tariff and MAGA stuff far more than it deserved.

Investors should look to make most of this opportunity and add on to quality stocks. Opportunities like these are seldom available.

Stay Invested!!!

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending July 25th 2025

Dear patrons, the Indian markets were fully in a bear grip for last two days of the week gone by. Almost all sectoral indices along with the benchmark indices closed deep in the red. Quarterly results failed to enthuse the markets as most corporates declared lackluster performance. 

FIIs have been selling consistently for last couple of weeks while domestic institutions were buyers over this period. Crude oil as well as precious metals remained in a range for the week. The US in the meanwhile has signed trade deal with the EU, while Indian trade deal remains elusive.

Globally the markets remained pretty buoyant with the US concluding trade deals with the EU and Japan among major economies and many of the smaller economies. US indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted new lifetime highs on all trading days. Japan's Nikkei shot up by over 3% on trade deal news.

Indian markets are quite strong fundamentally but consistent FII selling is not allowing the markets to move upwards. There is no foreseeable reason for this consistent outflow on FII front barring a few commentaries by domestic corporates fearing growth momentum.

Amidst the mayhem in the markets, India concluded its trade deal with the UK. The India-UK free trade agreement should provide a much-needed boost to growth. Investors may focus on specific sectors like textile, which are likely to benefit from this trade deal.

Let's look at the charts now and try to figure out what lies in store for the coming week.

As mentioned in the previous blog Nifty stumbled around its resistance of 25200 and dropped towards support of 24800 (You may read it here Weekly Market Update: Week Ending July 18th 2025). For the coming week Nifty should find support near 24800-24750 while 25000 should act as stiff resistance. Close above 25000 is needed for any up move in the Nifty. Reiterating that, as long as Nifty stays above 24500 it remains a "Buy-On-Dips" market.

BankNifty remained very volatile over the last week. While ICICIBANK and HDFCBANK results took the BankNifty close to its lifetime high levels, other banking and NBFC results put breaks on its upward trajectory. For the coming week BankNifty has strong support around 56000 while 57000 should act as strong resistance.

We expect the markets to remain highly volatile during the week, owing to derivatives contract expiry for the month of July. Traders need to be cautious and nimble footed while adhering to strict stop losses. There may be upside in the markets on account of short covering. Institutions have big, short positions in the indices. 

"How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case." ~ Robert G. Allen

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk. 

Week Ending July 18th 2025

Dear patrons, the Indian markets spent the entire last week, consolidating in a narrow range and closed at the lower end of the range on last trading session. Benchmark Nifty lost close to three quarters of a percent over the week to close below 25000 for the first time in July. BankNifty was weaker of the two indices owing to poor set of numbers by one of the premier banks i.e. Axis Bank.

Corporate results, as stated in the last blog have played the spoil sport. None of the major results could manage to lift the market mood be it from banking space or IT. The mood, however, can turn bullish if big companies announce good results over the weekend. Corporate behemoth Reliance Industries declared good result for Q1FY26, which, may enthuse the markets. It posted a 25% growth in profits YoY. Banking bigwigs ICICIBANK & HDFCBANK posted decent results and should provide a much-needed boost to bulls to carry the markets northwards.

In another good news for the markets and the economy, inflation is at 77 months low of 2.1%, paving way for yet another rate cut for the RBI.

Globally, the US markets are surging ahead every passing day. Nasdaq and S&P 500 both made new lifetime highs. The Dow Jones has also been moving up gradually. Inflationary pressure, however, is still lurking large on the US markets. European markets were also quite upbeat over the week.

Let us take a look at the charts and try to figure out what lies in store for the coming week

As mentioned in the previous blog Nifty moved downwards towards 24900 last week. (You may read it here Weekly Market Update: Week Ending July 11th 2025). For the coming week Nifty should find support around 24800 while resistance is placed around 25200. Nifty needs to close above 25300 for more upside to commence. A close below 24750 may lead to further downside. As long as Nifty remains above 24500 it is a "Buy-On-Dips" market.

As stated in the last blog BankNifty fell towards 56000 in one swift move to close around 56300. It has strong support around 56000. Break below 56000 may lead to another 1000 point cut in BankNifty. On the upside 56700-56800 should act as resistance. Move beyond 56800 should lead the BankNifty towards new lifetime high levels.

Traders need to be cautious ahead of results in stocks, as wild moves on either side can't be ruled out. Adhering to strict stop losses would prove to be a blessing. There should be lot of opportunity on either side for traders. Investors may look to accumulate good quality stocks in the current fall.

"The markets are like a weather; you may not like it, but you have to bear it." ~ Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk. 

Week Ending July 11th 2025

Dear patrons; after a week of consolidation markets slid on Friday to crack below all important support level of 25200 on the Nifty. All sectoral indices bore the brunt of sell off after IT giant TCS results. The tone set by the first major result in Q2FY26 is not very promising, though some sectors are likely to outperform on results front.

TCS result on the face don't look too bad either, however, higher bottom-line may be attributed to other income and rising USD against the INR. The markets have probably discounted these two factors while reading the numbers. Future results from the IT space are expected to follow suit. The IT index looks weak and a potential fall of up to 10% from current levels to 34200 can't be ruled out. With support around 36000.

Globally, the US markets have remained upbeat, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 both taking out previous lifetime high levels. Crude oil remained steady around $70 and precious metals shined with Silver making new lifetime high in the domestic markets.

Geopolitics has been playing a very crucial role in market movements over the past few weeks. There is some anxiety around the news of China amassing its naval forces around Taiwan and staking its claim on that territory. 2025 is surely a roller coaster ride for everyone, more so for the equity markets.

Kotak Investment Advisors – 12-Month Outlook: 1. Expects financials, capital goods, and select midcap pharma to outperform over the next year. 2. Raised mid/small-cap exposure from 25% to 30% on hopes of earnings rebound post tepid FY25. 3. Maintains 80:20 allocation between domestic and international equities. 4. Overweight on financials, favoring well-managed NBFCs; expects consumption recovery backed by fiscal support and better monsoon. 5. Positive on Gold and Silver for portfolio diversification.

FIIs have been on the wait and watch mode for emerging markets mostly on account of uncertainty on Tariff front. Q1 earnings season kicked off with weak IT result. FIIs have pulled out Rs. 5000 cr so far in July. SEBI crack down on Jane Street has dented F&O volumes.

Let's now take a look at the charts and try to figure out what lies in store for the coming week.

As we can see, Nifty, after spending time in a range, broke it on the downside. It closed just a tad below 25150 breaking important support around 25200. Coming week looks a bit grim for the markets. Nifty should find support around 25000-24900 range. Immediate resistance for Nifty lies around 25350 while 25500 may prove to be very difficult to cross in immediate future. A close below 24900 may lead to further downside towards 24500.

BankNifty is also looking weak for the coming week. It managed to close above its support near 56700. A close below 56700 may lead it towards 56000 which, should act as a strong support. 

Evry dip in the markets is an opportunity for investors to accumulate good quality stocks, particularly in select sectors. Traders need to adhere to strict stop losses and be nimble footed. Markets should provide opportunities on either side.

“One of the very nice things about investing in the stock market is that you learn about all different aspects of the economy. It’s your window into a very large world.”  - Ron Chernow

Stay Invested!!!

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk. 

Week Ending July 4th 2025

Dear patrons, during the slow news week the markets were also quite dull in activity. Indices spent the entire week consolidating in a tight range of 25650-25350. Higher levels saw supply while demand emerged at lower levels along with short covering. During the week markets closed in the red for three days and managed to clock positive closing on two days.

In yet another move towards improving risk management in the World's largest derivatives market the SEBI has proposed a plethora of measures, The new proposals touch everything from Open Interest calculations to position limits, ban period rules along with pre-open and post- closing market session for Futures. These measures are likely to improve volumes and reduce volatility.

Globally the US markets rallied last week. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq made multiple lifetime highs during the week while the Dow Jones touched multi month highs. European peers were also quite strong and inched northwards. Asian markets were a mixed bag over the past week rallying on odd days and correcting on even days.

Back home, Foreign Investors were sellers consistently over the week while Domestic Investors were buyers. As the deadline for American Tariffs draws closer anxiety among investors is on the rise. The Indian Economy is however expected to remain strong and show a robust growth of around 6.5% in FY26, India is eyeing record-breaking exports in FY26, especially on account of signing FTAs (Free Trade Agreement) with various countries. India's Services PMI rose to a 10-month high of 60.4 in June 2025 on the back of strong domestic demand, higher export orders and steady job creation.

With Q1 FY26 coming to end, we will be entering the corporate results season from the coming week. IT giant TCS will kick start with results on 10th July. Results are likely to be good this time around and we should see sharp growth in select sectors. Overall, it should be satisfactory season for Indian corporates. Markets will see more stock specific action reacting to results, while the indices may remain steady.

Let us now take a look at the charts and try to figure out what lies in store for the coming week on the benchmark indices front.

Nifty spent entire last week consolidating and consistently closing above its 8 EMA (Exponential Moving Average), which, should act as support going into the results season next week. Breach of 25400 may lead Nifty to 25200. A close above 25600 is needed for Nifty to move towards 25800 and above towards new lifetime high levels. Corporate results will play a pivotal role in the movement of Nifty in the coming days. Stock specific action will prevail compared to the indices.

BankNifty was also in a range for the week albeit making new lifetime highs. BankNifty has been and still looking stronger than the Nifty. BankNifty should find support near 56900-57000. Strong support for BankNifty is placed around 56500. As long as BankNifty holds above 56500 it remains "Buy-On-Dips".

Select sectors have been outperforming the broader markets and are likely to persist in the same vein. Select MidCap stocks are looking extremely attractive and are likely to outperform the markets. Investors should look to accumulate good quality stocks in every fall. Markets are likely making a launchpad for a leap towards new highs. 

Stay Invested!!!

“History provides a crucial insight regarding market crises: they are inevitable, painful and ultimately surmountable.” ~ Shelby M.C. Davis

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk. 

Week Ending June 27th 2025

Dear patrons, the Indian markets saw a stupendous rally in the week gone by. Benchmark Nifty ended the month of June with a 4% gain over previous month while the BankNifty posted a 3% MoM (month on month) gain. Almost all sectoral indices also closed in the green for the week. Easing geopolitical tensions and falling Crude Oil prices have prompted investors to shift to "Risk On" mode. In the "Risk On" mode we may see some softening in precious metal prices along with commodity prices.

Indian markets remained resilient during the turmoil around the globe be it geopolitical or economical. A lot of credit for the Indian markets' stability goes to the Domestic Institutional Investors. Rising confidence in Mutual Funds by retail investors has transformed into rising AUMs (Assets Under Management) for various AMCs (Asset Management Companies). Big corporates are also playing along by parking their idle funds with respective AMCs to boost Domestic strength.

Globally, the US markets were very buoyant after announcement of cease fire in the middle East and release of Fed statement. The Federal Reserve chair promised two more cuts in the year irrespective of inflation and state of economy. The statement fueled rally in all indices in the US, with the S&P 500 rising to a lifetime high. European markets were also largely positive. As the deadline for implementation of tariffs draws closer, we may see some jitters in the markets.

Back home, falling Crude oil prices along with falling Dollar index augurs well for the Indian markets in the near future. Fall in Crude prices reduces India's import bill thereby reducing the Current Account Deficit, which in turn pushes Capital Expenditure by Government northwards. In fact, the CAD for January-March 2025 quarter swung into surplus, clocking nearly $14 bn in the positive, that too amid 3 wars.

Let us now try to figure out what lies in store for our markets in the coming week.

As we can see Nifty moved higher gaining more than 2% over the week. A lot of this up move can be attributed to short covering on account of the June series derivatives contract expiry. Nifty achieved 25500 as mentioned in the previous blog and surpassed our target to close a tad below 25650. For the coming week Nifty may face resistance in the 25800-26000 range. 26150 appears to be the target for this rally and a close above this level may trigger further up move towards new lifetime high levels. On the downside 25200-25000 becomes a strong support zone for Nifty. As long as 25000 holds it remains a "Buy-On-Dips" market.

BankNifty has been the early mover in this rally. It is comfortably placed at a lifetime high ready for further push in the no resistance zone. Banks and NBFCs have remained flavor of the markets for some time now and are expected to remain top picks for institutions, thereby lending strength to BankNifty to move further ahead. 57800-58000 should act as immediate resistance. Close above 58000 may lead BankNifty towards 60000 in a hurry. On the downside 56400-56200 should act as support.

Markets are looking strong and a surplus CAD resulting in more capex should provide more impetus for further up move. Extension in tariff deadline is on the cards, which again, is a positive for the markets. Investors should look to accumulate good quality stocks in select sectors. 

Stay Invested!!!

“Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks, not everyone has the stomach.” ~ Peter Lynch

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk. 

Week Ending June 20th 2025

Dear patrons, the Indian markets have been quite volatile over the last few days. Geopolitical tension has played a key role in this volatility. Situation across the middle East remains extremely capricious casting a shadow of war over the entire globe.

Indian markets have a lot to cheer as well as worry about. In an unprecedented move the Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates by 50 bps along with a staggered CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio) cut of 100 bps. The RBI has been very aggressive since the new Governor took over. It has pushed huge liquidity in the system through the use of OMOs (Open Market Operations, a whopping 3,00,000 crores), Interest Rate cut and CRR cut. RBI is eyeing impetus to GDP growth. Inflation has played a key role in RBI's bold decision, by touching a multi-year low. Worry for the markets is the ongoing tension in the middle East. Things might spiral into a full-blown war any time. A full-scale war is not good for the World as it may put pressure on Crude, which has already moved towards $80/barrel. Rising crude oil is extremely worrisome for a developing economy like India.

The US markets over the last week remained a mixed bag. The Federal Reserve held status quo in interest rates and there is possibility of two rate cuts during the year. These rate cuts however depend on inflation, which is not showing any signs of abetment. 

Coming back to Indian markets, we saw some sharp up move on Friday. Benchmark Nifty closed well above its psychological resistance of 25000.Domestic institutions have been buying Indian stocks consistently for last three weeks. Foreign investors are slowly but surely turning buyers in the Indian markets. Let's take a look at the charts and try to figure out what lies ahead for the markets in the coming week.

As we can see, Nifty surged past the all-important level of 25000 on Friday. This up move has come after a period of range bound activity over last couple of weeks. In all probability Nifty has broken out of its range and is headed towards 25500. As long as Nifty remains above 24800 it is a "Buy-On-Dips" market. A close below 24800 should open doors for further fall towards 24000. Coming week being expiry week for May derivatives contracts, may see a lot of volatility and a bout of short covering may propel Nifty towards its target in a jiffy.

BankNifty led the rally in the markets. However, it looks a bit fatigued right now. A move above 57000 is needed for BankNifty to scale further high levels. Immediate resistance for BankNifty is placed in 56300-56600 range. Move beyond 56600 should open the doors for 57800-58000 on BankNifty.

A word of caution for traders though. Traders MUST adhere to strict stoop losses. The moves can be sharp and wild given the expiry week as well as news flow from Isreal-Iran skirmish. Markets will provide ample opportunity to trade on both sides. Investors should look to accumulate good quality stocks in every dip. Select sectors are likely to outperform others with big margin, allocating more weightage to such sectors in the portfolio would be more rewarding over a period of time.

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk. 

Week Ending January 10th 2025

Dear patrons, in the new year bears have been holding a stranglehold on the markets. Barring the first couple of sessions the new year has not been very auspicious for the bulls. In the week gone by markets lost quite a bit of ground again. Benchmark Nifty fell more than 1% while BankNifty fell by more than 4% to end the week in tatters.

Global markets remained subdued last week. The US markets took different directions wherein the Dow Jones moved southwards while Nasdaq moved northwards. Indian markets remained the worst performing for last week. Fall in Indian markets can be attributed to a large extent to the falling INR vs the USD. With interest rates lowering and USD strengthening, US has become a preferred destination for investors compared to a high interest economy like India. We have been consistently saying that interest rates in India are too high to sustain growth.

In all the chaos, there is some glimmer of hope. Quarterly results season has been kicked off spectacularly by TCS. The stock gained more than 5% on the back of good set of numbers and positive outlook for future from the management. Monthly IIP numbers have also moved up pretty sharply from 3.7% to 5.2% growth (MoM). We expect results season to be good this time around on account of festivities in the quarter and even better results are expected next quarter owing to World's biggest festival the "Maha Kumbha Mela". A congregation of close to 50 crore people are expected to happen at the "Kumbha", giving a major fillip to local as well as national economy.

Let's take a look at charts and try to figure out moves for the coming week.

As we can see Nifty moved sharply towards its recent lows last week. 23200 still remains strong support. In case 23200 is breached and Nifty closes below this level then there is every chance of the floodgates to open for big downward move towards 22500 and below. We are, however, very optimistic that fall in Nifty should be arrested next week and a rebound is likely to take place in second half of the week. "Uttarayan" for Sun and Nifty are likely to happen in tandem. Nifty has resistance around 23700-23800 and beyond this level, 24200 should act as stiff resistance.

BankNifty was badly hit last week losing more than 4% with major fall coming on the last day of the week. BankNifty is looking fragile on all time frames. It has strong support around 47300 while resistance is placed around 50000. 

Majority of sectoral indices have cracked last week. It should be prudent to hunt for opportunity in sectoral stocks. We have mentioned the sectors to look out for in the last blog. Traders should adhere to strict stop losses, as wild moves in stocks cannot be ruled out.

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk. 

Week Ending January 03rd 2025

Dear patrons, the roller coaster ride continues in the markets, with the benchmark indices oscillating wildly to gain some and lose some sessions. While the week before last week saw movement in a very small range last week the markets saw positive closing on three out of five sessions.

World over, the festive atmosphere lead the markets northwards albeit on low volumes. The new year began quite well for the Indian markets as well. Markets now await Q3 results which should decide the markets direction in the coming weeks. Stock specific movements are likely to prevail over broad rallies.

There is rising talk of another virus (Human MetaPneumo Virus or HMPV) wreaking havoc in China. This chatter, however, is more vigorous on the social media. In view of some of the experts, the virus is 60 years old and is found commonly in winter. As the temperature rises after Uttarayan, the virus should vanish. As of today, there seems nothing to be worried about HMPV.

New year should bring along rate cuts in India to the tune of 50 bps in the first half. Capex is likely to increase in the budget.

Let's take a look at the charts and try to figure out what lies in store for the coming week.

Nifty took support around 23700 as suggested in the last blog and reversed strongly to move towards 24200. Resistance for Nifty lies around 24325. Nifty needs to close above 24325 at least for a couple of sessions to show first sign of trend reversal. It should find support in 24000-23900 range, while strong support lies around 23700. We believe the uptrend should resume in Nifty in coming few sessions leading towards 25000 and above.

BankNifty has looked weaker than Nifty for last few sessions. Support for BankNifty lies around 50500. A break below this level will be bad news for BankNifty. We believe the BankNifty may remain choppy for coming few sessions before a robust rally preempting rate cut in first week of February. Resistance for BankNifty lies around 51200-51300 followed by 51700-51800. Move above 52700 is needed for BankNifty to come out the current trend.

Government of India has declared 2025 as the year of Defence Reforms. This may be time to look at some of the defence stocks. We have been suggesting sectoral rotation in the markets for some time now. 

Top Sectors to Watch: Capital goods, consumer discretionary, data centers, lab-grown diamonds, electronics manufacturing services (EMS), export-oriented sectors, CDMO/CMO pharmaceuticals, precision engineering, semiconductors, real estate, solar and wind energy, textiles, transmission and wastewater treatment.

Stock market wisdom: "The stock market builds wealth over time, not instantly. Trade with a plan, strategy, risk management system, rules, stop loss and profit target."

Stay Invested!!!

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.