Week Ending 15th August 2025

Dear patrons, in a truncated week the Indian markets traded within a range but near the lower end of trading range. Benchmark Nifty closed the week more than 1% positive while BankNifty ended the week with close to 0.50% gain. 

Globally, the US markets were bullish, and all major indices made new lifetime highs during the week. Geopolitical tensions are easing with the US and Russian president meeting for a ceasefire talk. Though the meeting was inconclusive, there was no untoward statement from either leader.

Domestically, in his Independence Day speech the PM announced certain measures to unleash domestic consumption lead growth story. In his speech the PM hinted at reforms in the Goods and Services Tax, after 8 years of launch. It is believed that there will be only two slabs of GST from Diwali. Further. there was more focus on innovation during his speech, where he urged Indian industry to become self-reliant.

India has always been a consumption economy, with domestic leading growth. We believe, lowering of GST will lead to prices coming down for consumers and more consumption. Inflation being quite docile should spur domestic consumption. US tariffs have acted as a blessing in disguise or as the PM says "Aapda me Awasar", prompting the GoI to act on reforms.

Coming back to the markets, the AMFI (Association of Mutual Funds in India) declared July numbers are they are extremely encouraging. Details are mentioned below.

SIP record levels at Rs 28,464cr vs Rs 27269cr MoM

Inflow at `178794 cr vs Inflow at `49095cr   MoM

Equity Inflow at `42702 cr vs Inflow at `23587cr   MoM

Total AUM at `75.4 lk cr vs `74.4lk cr  MoM

Equity AUM at `33.3 lk cr vs `33.5lk cr MoM

IMPACT

Midcap inflows rise 38% at Rs 5182cr MoM

Smallcap inflows up 61% at Rs 6484cr MoM

Except ELSS all equity schemes show inflows for second straight month

Strong inflows for Large Cap, Multicap segment

Sectoral Fund flows at Rs 9426cr vs Rs 476cr MoM

Flexicap Funds inflows jump 34% at Rs 7654cr

FACTORS

Equity inflows come all-time high levels -above Rs 42K CR

Overall-Flows increase due liquid, money-market, equity segment

Equity segment saw inflows for 53rd straight month

Equity AUM/Total AUM at record high levels

NFOs inflows at Rs 30416cr vs Rs 1986cr (MoM)

Rating agency S&P Global upgrades India’s sovereign rating to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB-’ due to policy continuity, robust growth and fiscal management. This upgrade comes after a whopping 18 years. India is well and truly on the path of growth.

Let's now look at the charts and try to figure out market moves for the coming week.

As we can see, Nifty remained in a range for the entire week, trading close to lower levels of a trading band. It managed to, however, close above its 100 EMA on the last trading session. For the coming week 24400 should act as strong support while immediate resistance lies around 24750. If Nifty manages to close above 24750, then 25100-25200 will act as major hurdle. Close above 25300 is needed for Nifty to move towards its lifetime high levels.

BankNifty has been trading in a tighter range compared to Nifty. It has managed to hold on to its 100 EMA. 54900 is strong support for BankNifty, while 55800-56000 should act as strong resistance. Move above 56000 should lead BankNifty towards new lifetime high levels

The mantra for investors as always remains to accumulate good quality stocks in every dip. Traders may look to grab short term gains in these volatile times, adhering to strict stop losses.

Stay Invested!!!

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.