Week Ending July 25th 2025

Dear patrons, the Indian markets were fully in a bear grip for last two days of the week gone by. Almost all sectoral indices along with the benchmark indices closed deep in the red. Quarterly results failed to enthuse the markets as most corporates declared lackluster performance. 

FIIs have been selling consistently for last couple of weeks while domestic institutions were buyers over this period. Crude oil as well as precious metals remained in a range for the week. The US in the meanwhile has signed trade deal with the EU, while Indian trade deal remains elusive.

Globally the markets remained pretty buoyant with the US concluding trade deals with the EU and Japan among major economies and many of the smaller economies. US indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted new lifetime highs on all trading days. Japan's Nikkei shot up by over 3% on trade deal news.

Indian markets are quite strong fundamentally but consistent FII selling is not allowing the markets to move upwards. There is no foreseeable reason for this consistent outflow on FII front barring a few commentaries by domestic corporates fearing growth momentum.

Amidst the mayhem in the markets, India concluded its trade deal with the UK. The India-UK free trade agreement should provide a much-needed boost to growth. Investors may focus on specific sectors like textile, which are likely to benefit from this trade deal.

Let's look at the charts now and try to figure out what lies in store for the coming week.

As mentioned in the previous blog Nifty stumbled around its resistance of 25200 and dropped towards support of 24800 (You may read it here Weekly Market Update: Week Ending July 18th 2025). For the coming week Nifty should find support near 24800-24750 while 25000 should act as stiff resistance. Close above 25000 is needed for any up move in the Nifty. Reiterating that, as long as Nifty stays above 24500 it remains a "Buy-On-Dips" market.

BankNifty remained very volatile over the last week. While ICICIBANK and HDFCBANK results took the BankNifty close to its lifetime high levels, other banking and NBFC results put breaks on its upward trajectory. For the coming week BankNifty has strong support around 56000 while 57000 should act as strong resistance.

We expect the markets to remain highly volatile during the week, owing to derivatives contract expiry for the month of July. Traders need to be cautious and nimble footed while adhering to strict stop losses. There may be upside in the markets on account of short covering. Institutions have big, short positions in the indices. 

"How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case." ~ Robert G. Allen

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.