Week Ending 19th September 2025

Dear patrons, the saying "No news is good news" came true for the markets last week. In a slow news week, the markets rallied slowly but steadily to conquer 25400 on the Nifty. BankNifty also rallied steadily to touch 55800. 

Domestically, new GST rates kick in from Monday amid start of big festive season. We should be able to see the change in consumption in a couple of months. The key worry for the markets, however, remains the INR-USD relation. The INR managed to gain some strength after touching lifetime low levels. The Dollar Index on the other hand, has gone to multi month low.

After almost a fortnight of peace, the US strikes again, this time with exorbitant increase in H1-B visa fees. In our opinion, Indian IT companies may face some near-term pain due to this increase in visa fees. In the longer run, however, this move should prove to be a blessing in disguise for the Indian IT and services industry.

Globally, US markets were in buoyant mood last week on account of interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. European and Asian markets were also positive. The party in the US markets may be coming to an end in near future and focus on emerging markets should increase again.

Let us now take a look at charts and try to figure out what lies in store for the coming week.

As we can see in the above pic. Nifty moved steadily upwards towards 25450, as mentioned these levels in our previous blog. You may read it here (Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 12th September 2025). For the coming week Nifty faces resistance around 25450-25500. Crossing 25500 should lead the Nifty towards 25700-25800. Support on the other hand is placed around 25200-25100 below which it may drift towards 25000-24900. We expect the Nifty to consolidate in the coming week in a broad range of 25500-24900.

Coming to BankNifty, it has moved up more than 1% over the last week. It faces resistance around 55800-55900, while support is placed around 55000. Strong support for BankNifty lies around 24500. We expect BankNifty to outperform Nifty in the coming week.

The MIDCAP index also gained substantially in the last week. We expect Mid-Caps to outperform the large caps in coming days. Resistance for MIDCAP 100 lies around 59500 while support is placed around 58500.

Investors may focus on select mid cap stock for outperformance. Accumulating good quality stocks remains the mantra for achieving good returns on investment. 

Investing is lifelong education where each mistake, success and market cycle adds to learning. The best investors stay curious, humble and adaptable, evolving with changing conditions instead of assuming markets will always behave in the same manner.

Traders should find ample opportunity in the markets on either side. Traders are, however advised to remain alert to movement in the markets and adhere to strict stop losses as well as targets.

Stay Invested!!!

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 12th September 2025

Dear patrons, first of all let me apologize for not writing this blog last week due to some unavoidable circumstances. Indian markets managed to regain psychologically important level of 25000 on the Nifty while BankNifty remained subdued ending yet another week below 55000. Markets managed to close positive on all sessions gaining slow momentum.

Reduction in GST, softening POTUS stand along with Indian investors' appetite for stocks provided the much-required push for the markets to inch higher. As we had mentioned in our previous blog, reduction in GST is aimed at increasing domestic consumption. timing of reduction could not have been better, as the festive season begins, it is an attempt to wake up the domestic consumer from his slumber.

Globally, the US markets rallied on expectation of faster and larger rate cuts from the Federal Reserve owing to poor jobs data. All three major indices on the NYSE hit lifetime highs yet again, although the last session saw some profit booking. European counterparts followed cues from the US markets and rallied. Asian markets remained pretty buoyant as well.

Gold and Silver are glittering like never before, conquering newer highs each passing day. Upward momentum in Gold can be attributed to geopolitical maneuvers, as the BRICS wants to end the USD hegemony.

The US is sending feelers through social media for betterment of ties with India. After all the bravado of threats of destroying the FOURTH largest economy, better sense is prevailing in the US, contributing partially to the rally in Indian markets.

Let's now take a look at charts and try to figure out what lies in store for the coming week.

Nifty managed to close above 25100 for the week, gaining more than 1%. We expect Nifty to continue its forward journey with a mild resistance around 25150-25200. Nifty looks set to move towards 25400-25500 for the coming week. Support on the other hand is placed around 24800-24900. Strong support for Nifty lies in the 24500-24600 range.

BankNifty also gained more than 1% over the week without showing much hassle for it. BankNifty has underperformed the broader markets over last few weeks. We believe time is ripe for it to start marching forward. BankNifty closed the week a tad below its 100 EMA. For the coming week support for BankNifty lies in 54500-54600 range. Resistance lies around 55500. Strong resistance may be encountered around 55900-56000.

Coming to midcap index, it looks poised for a considerable up move. Resistance for MIDCAP 100 is placed around 58800, crossing this level should take it to 59800. Support on the other hand is placed around 57600 below which 56900 should act as strong support.

Investors should look to accumulate good quality stocks. There may be short term pain, but eventually the reward will out do the pain. Focusing on select midcap stocks should prove to be more rewarding than large cap stocks. Select sectoral indices are also looking good.

Stay Invested!!!

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 29th August 2025

Dear patrons, the US tariffs on India became applicable in the week gone by. One of the highest tariff rates has been levied on India. Although we are very confident that India will emerge out of this "harakiri" by the US administration, stronger, however, near-term jitters may be felt, particularly in the stock markets.

Indian markets were firmly in bear grip over the truncated week, benchmark Nifty lost close to 2% and closed around 24400. BankNifty was weaker and lost close to 3% and closed well below 54000. In our view there are more than one reasons for this fall. Tariffs have played their part in this fall, the bigger worry for the markets is the USD-INR relation. The INR has been losing ground consistently over last few days and has reached historic low levels. As long as INR remains weak, chances of rally in the markets remain grim.

Indian GDP numbers were announced on August 29th and to the surprise of most analysts and some dolts sitting outside the country, it grew by a whopping 7.8% for Q1 FY2026. The GDP growth is at a multi-year high. India remains world's fastest growing big economy. We believe, Indian economy will outdo other major economies in terms of growth driven by very strong domestic consumption. On the flip side this robust growth and low inflation may prompt the RBI to hold interest rate status quo in coming MPC meet.

Globally, markets remained quite buoyant. The US indices have again managed to reach new life-time highs, while Asian markets remained rangebound. A lot of topsy turvy moves look to be in store as geopolitical situations evolve and American hegemony is challenged.  We believe, it is just a passing phase, and things should normalize in coming days.

Let's take a look at charts and try to figure out what lies in store for the coming week.

As we can see Nifty fell on 3 out of four trading sessions. Nifty broke its important support around 24600. The signs are not good on Nifty, and we may see further slide in coming days towards 24000. If a good set of GDP numbers add some enthusiasm, it may rally towards 24800, which should act as resistance. Beyond 24800 it may move towards 25200-25300 in a jiffy. A break below 24000 may lead to more pain and Nifty may slide towards 23200-23300 range.

BankNifty remained weaker of the two and lost more ground. Immediate support for BankNifty lies around 53500-53600. Move below 53500 may trigger another 1000 point cut on BankNifty. On the upside, resistance is placed around 54900-55000. Beyond 55000 we should witness a strong rally in BankNifty.

Nifty Midcap 100 index also bled profusely over the last week losing more than 3%. It should find support around 55100-55000 while resistance is placed around 56800-56900. It needs to move above 57200 for any worthwhile rally.

Now that derivatives contract expiry and tariffs are out of the way, markets should find some stability. Traders need to be nimble footed and adhere to strict stop losses. Investors may look to buy good quality stock in each dip.

Long term story for India remains intact.

Stay Invested!!!!

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 22nd August 2025

Dear patrons, amidst geopolitical activity and domestic reforms announced on Independence Day, the markets gained some lost ground over last couple of weeks. Benchmark Nifty closed positive on 4 out of the five sessions. However, end of week session saw bears getting the better of bulls squandering half of the gains accumulated over four sessions.

Globally, the US and Russian presidents met for a solution to the ongoing crisis, but the meeting was inconclusive. Although both parties agreed to meet again to arrive at a solution. The US indices were a mixed bag over the week but ended on a strong note on expectation of interest rate cut earlier than anticipated.

Domestically, India's PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) surged to 65.2 in August. Manufacturing and Services sector contributed most to the PMI with robust growth. Services PMI touched an all-time high at 65.6. Overall, August PMI saw a healthy growth of over 6% compared to July

Let's take a look at charts and try to figure out moves for the coming week.

As stated in the previous blog Nifty found resistance around 25100-25200 (you may read it here Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 15th August 2025). Nifty after a gap up on Monday moved northwards and crossed 25000 to touch a high of 25153 and saw a sharp turn around to close the week below 24900. For the coming week 25100-25200 remains a stiff resistance zone. Support for Nifty is placed around 24800 followed by strong support around 24600. Coming week being expiry week for derivatives contract is expected to remain volatile with a positive bias. 

Coming to BankNifty, it was the weaker of the two benchmark indices. BankNifty was firmly in bear grip and closed the week down quarter of a percent. BankNifty has support around 55000 which should prove to be difficult to break on a closing basis. Resistance for BankNifty is placed around 55700-55800. It needs to close above 56600 for any meaningful up move.

Almost all sectoral indices were in the red on Friday, presenting a good opportunity for investors to accumulate quality stocks. Diversification of portfolio is the key to making more gains and mitigating risk. FMCG and Auto were two sectors where there was positive action. This move was on account of GST rejig and steps being taken to increase consumption.

Traders are advised caution for the coming week. Markets are likely to be volatile and extreme moves on either side can't be ruled out. Risk management and adhering to rules strictly is needed. 

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 15th August 2025

Dear patrons, in a truncated week the Indian markets traded within a range but near the lower end of trading range. Benchmark Nifty closed the week more than 1% positive while BankNifty ended the week with close to 0.50% gain. 

Globally, the US markets were bullish, and all major indices made new lifetime highs during the week. Geopolitical tensions are easing with the US and Russian president meeting for a ceasefire talk. Though the meeting was inconclusive, there was no untoward statement from either leader.

Domestically, in his Independence Day speech the PM announced certain measures to unleash domestic consumption lead growth story. In his speech the PM hinted at reforms in the Goods and Services Tax, after 8 years of launch. It is believed that there will be only two slabs of GST from Diwali. Further. there was more focus on innovation during his speech, where he urged Indian industry to become self-reliant.

India has always been a consumption economy, with domestic leading growth. We believe, lowering of GST will lead to prices coming down for consumers and more consumption. Inflation being quite docile should spur domestic consumption. US tariffs have acted as a blessing in disguise or as the PM says "Aapda me Awasar", prompting the GoI to act on reforms.

Coming back to the markets, the AMFI (Association of Mutual Funds in India) declared July numbers are they are extremely encouraging. Details are mentioned below.

SIP record levels at Rs 28,464cr vs Rs 27269cr MoM

Inflow at `178794 cr vs Inflow at `49095cr   MoM

Equity Inflow at `42702 cr vs Inflow at `23587cr   MoM

Total AUM at `75.4 lk cr vs `74.4lk cr  MoM

Equity AUM at `33.3 lk cr vs `33.5lk cr MoM

IMPACT

Midcap inflows rise 38% at Rs 5182cr MoM

Smallcap inflows up 61% at Rs 6484cr MoM

Except ELSS all equity schemes show inflows for second straight month

Strong inflows for Large Cap, Multicap segment

Sectoral Fund flows at Rs 9426cr vs Rs 476cr MoM

Flexicap Funds inflows jump 34% at Rs 7654cr

FACTORS

Equity inflows come all-time high levels -above Rs 42K CR

Overall-Flows increase due liquid, money-market, equity segment

Equity segment saw inflows for 53rd straight month

Equity AUM/Total AUM at record high levels

NFOs inflows at Rs 30416cr vs Rs 1986cr (MoM)

Rating agency S&P Global upgrades India’s sovereign rating to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB-’ due to policy continuity, robust growth and fiscal management. This upgrade comes after a whopping 18 years. India is well and truly on the path of growth.

Let's now look at the charts and try to figure out market moves for the coming week.

As we can see, Nifty remained in a range for the entire week, trading close to lower levels of a trading band. It managed to, however, close above its 100 EMA on the last trading session. For the coming week 24400 should act as strong support while immediate resistance lies around 24750. If Nifty manages to close above 24750, then 25100-25200 will act as major hurdle. Close above 25300 is needed for Nifty to move towards its lifetime high levels.

BankNifty has been trading in a tighter range compared to Nifty. It has managed to hold on to its 100 EMA. 54900 is strong support for BankNifty, while 55800-56000 should act as strong resistance. Move above 56000 should lead BankNifty towards new lifetime high levels

The mantra for investors as always remains to accumulate good quality stocks in every dip. Traders may look to grab short term gains in these volatile times, adhering to strict stop losses.

Stay Invested!!!

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending August 08th 2025

Dear patrons, amidst the heightening tariff war between India and the US, markets traded mostly negatively to end the 7th consecutive week in the red. Benchmark Nifty lost close to 1%, most of which was due to losses on Friday. BankNifty also lost around 1% during the week.

In our view, Indian exporters will find a way out to export to the US circumventing tariffs. One of them would be to export from other Asian countries, who have a lot less tariff. Indian ingenuity or Jugaad WILL find a way to remain relevant in these tough times.

Biggest reason for markets falling is continuous weakness in the INR against USD. Loss in INR prompts selling by FIIs though DIIs remained consistent buyers. The MPC (Monetary Policy committee) meet failed to enthuse markets by maintaining status quo in interest rates.

Globally, US markets remained bullish with Nasdaq making yet another new lifetime high. European markets were also quite buoyant over the week. The tariff war, however, is on the rise with many European countries cancelling their deals with US corporates.

Let's take a look at charts and try to figure out market moves for the coming week.

Nifty closed below a very important support of 24400. Indicators are indicating further downward movement in Nifty, however, there is always light at the end of the tunnel. The light here being extremely low long positions of the FIIs on Nifty futures, oversold Put Call ratio and consistent DII buying. 24150-24100 should act as strong support for Nifty and 24600-24700 should act resistance. Markets are looking over sold and we may witness sharp short covering lead rally in coming days.

BankNifty managed to close above its important support of 54900. We expect BankNifty to lead any rally, if there is one. It has managed to close above its support on both daily as well as weekly charts. For the coming week 55500-55600 should act as major hurdle for BankNifty. 54500-54400 should act as a strong support.

Long term investors should look to accumulate good quality stocks in each dip in the markets. Traders need to be cautious and adhere to strict stop losses. Ample opportunity should be available on either side for traders. Discipline and Risk Management are a must to make money in the markets.

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending August 1st 2025

Dear patrons, in an eventful week the markets were firmly in the grip of bears to end the week more than 1% down. Nifty fell for the 5th straight week, marking its longest weekly losing streak in 2025. Nifty Midcap, SmallCap, IT, Realty, PSU Bank, Energy and Auto indices also declined. FMCG emerged as the top gainer, while IT saw its steepest weekly fall of 2025. Monthly chart signals bearish engulfing.

India’s market cap to GDP ratio at 136.8% is near a 20-year high, signaling the market has outpaced economic growth. Valuations remain elevated while earnings have not caught up. On the IIP front though, the Indian industry growth shrunk to 1.5% from 4.9% YoY, showing a major slowdown in activity. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) though, remains bullish on the Indian economy. In its recent update the IMF raised India's growth projection by 20 bps for the current fiscal and by 10 bps for the next. India remains the "Fastest Growing" large economy in the world.

Globally, the US markets had a mixed week. The S&P and Nasdaq were again very bullish, making new lifetime highs on multiple occasions. On the last trading session of the week the US markets fell sharply on account of very weak jobs data. The weak data may prompt the FED to cut interest rates sooner than expected.

Domestically, major reason for fall in the markets remains FII selling. FIIs have been selling Indian stocks relentlessly, while domestic institutions remained consistent buyers to support the markets. Falling INR against the USD provides further impetus to FII selling. The INR fell sharply last week to within touching distance to its recent low levels. The MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meet begins on Monday, and its results are expected on Wednesday. We do not expect much action from the RBI this time around. However, a surprise can't be ruled out as inflation is within the RBI's comfort level and there is a need to provide impetus to industrial growth.

Let us now take a look at the charts and try to figure out movement for the coming week.

Nifty closed a tad below its important support around 24600 on daily charts while just a tad above support on weekly charts. We do not expect big downward movement from these levels and expect a turnaround in Nifty. A close below 24400 however, may lead to further fall towards 24000-23900, while Nifty needs to close above 24800 for any meaningful up move to take place. A move above 25000 is needed for the first signs of getting out of the woods for the Nifty.

BankNifty has been weaker of the two benchmark indices. It has closed below its crucial support level of 56000 on couple of session marking distinct weakness. In coming days BankNifty should find support near 54900-55000 while 56500-56600 should act as stiff resistance.

Sectoral indices barring FMCG bored the brunt of sell off on Friday. Investors should look to accumulate good quality stocks in every dip. A well-diversified portfolio provides a cushion against erratic movements in the markets.

Traders are advised caution in the eventful week. Banking and NBFC stocks may see wild moves owing to MPC decision. Stay nimble footed and adhere to strict stop losses.

Stay Invested!!!

"In commodities, when prices go up, demand goes down. In stocks, when prices go up, demand goes up"~ Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.