Week Ending 15th August 2025

Dear patrons, in a truncated week the Indian markets traded within a range but near the lower end of trading range. Benchmark Nifty closed the week more than 1% positive while BankNifty ended the week with close to 0.50% gain. 

Globally, the US markets were bullish, and all major indices made new lifetime highs during the week. Geopolitical tensions are easing with the US and Russian president meeting for a ceasefire talk. Though the meeting was inconclusive, there was no untoward statement from either leader.

Domestically, in his Independence Day speech the PM announced certain measures to unleash domestic consumption lead growth story. In his speech the PM hinted at reforms in the Goods and Services Tax, after 8 years of launch. It is believed that there will be only two slabs of GST from Diwali. Further. there was more focus on innovation during his speech, where he urged Indian industry to become self-reliant.

India has always been a consumption economy, with domestic leading growth. We believe, lowering of GST will lead to prices coming down for consumers and more consumption. Inflation being quite docile should spur domestic consumption. US tariffs have acted as a blessing in disguise or as the PM says "Aapda me Awasar", prompting the GoI to act on reforms.

Coming back to the markets, the AMFI (Association of Mutual Funds in India) declared July numbers are they are extremely encouraging. Details are mentioned below.

SIP record levels at Rs 28,464cr vs Rs 27269cr MoM

Inflow at `178794 cr vs Inflow at `49095cr   MoM

Equity Inflow at `42702 cr vs Inflow at `23587cr   MoM

Total AUM at `75.4 lk cr vs `74.4lk cr  MoM

Equity AUM at `33.3 lk cr vs `33.5lk cr MoM

IMPACT

Midcap inflows rise 38% at Rs 5182cr MoM

Smallcap inflows up 61% at Rs 6484cr MoM

Except ELSS all equity schemes show inflows for second straight month

Strong inflows for Large Cap, Multicap segment

Sectoral Fund flows at Rs 9426cr vs Rs 476cr MoM

Flexicap Funds inflows jump 34% at Rs 7654cr

FACTORS

Equity inflows come all-time high levels -above Rs 42K CR

Overall-Flows increase due liquid, money-market, equity segment

Equity segment saw inflows for 53rd straight month

Equity AUM/Total AUM at record high levels

NFOs inflows at Rs 30416cr vs Rs 1986cr (MoM)

Rating agency S&P Global upgrades India’s sovereign rating to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB-’ due to policy continuity, robust growth and fiscal management. This upgrade comes after a whopping 18 years. India is well and truly on the path of growth.

Let's now look at the charts and try to figure out market moves for the coming week.

As we can see, Nifty remained in a range for the entire week, trading close to lower levels of a trading band. It managed to, however, close above its 100 EMA on the last trading session. For the coming week 24400 should act as strong support while immediate resistance lies around 24750. If Nifty manages to close above 24750, then 25100-25200 will act as major hurdle. Close above 25300 is needed for Nifty to move towards its lifetime high levels.

BankNifty has been trading in a tighter range compared to Nifty. It has managed to hold on to its 100 EMA. 54900 is strong support for BankNifty, while 55800-56000 should act as strong resistance. Move above 56000 should lead BankNifty towards new lifetime high levels

The mantra for investors as always remains to accumulate good quality stocks in every dip. Traders may look to grab short term gains in these volatile times, adhering to strict stop losses.

Stay Invested!!!

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending August 08th 2025

Dear patrons, amidst the heightening tariff war between India and the US, markets traded mostly negatively to end the 7th consecutive week in the red. Benchmark Nifty lost close to 1%, most of which was due to losses on Friday. BankNifty also lost around 1% during the week.

In our view, Indian exporters will find a way out to export to the US circumventing tariffs. One of them would be to export from other Asian countries, who have a lot less tariff. Indian ingenuity or Jugaad WILL find a way to remain relevant in these tough times.

Biggest reason for markets falling is continuous weakness in the INR against USD. Loss in INR prompts selling by FIIs though DIIs remained consistent buyers. The MPC (Monetary Policy committee) meet failed to enthuse markets by maintaining status quo in interest rates.

Globally, US markets remained bullish with Nasdaq making yet another new lifetime high. European markets were also quite buoyant over the week. The tariff war, however, is on the rise with many European countries cancelling their deals with US corporates.

Let's take a look at charts and try to figure out market moves for the coming week.

Nifty closed below a very important support of 24400. Indicators are indicating further downward movement in Nifty, however, there is always light at the end of the tunnel. The light here being extremely low long positions of the FIIs on Nifty futures, oversold Put Call ratio and consistent DII buying. 24150-24100 should act as strong support for Nifty and 24600-24700 should act resistance. Markets are looking over sold and we may witness sharp short covering lead rally in coming days.

BankNifty managed to close above its important support of 54900. We expect BankNifty to lead any rally, if there is one. It has managed to close above its support on both daily as well as weekly charts. For the coming week 55500-55600 should act as major hurdle for BankNifty. 54500-54400 should act as a strong support.

Long term investors should look to accumulate good quality stocks in each dip in the markets. Traders need to be cautious and adhere to strict stop losses. Ample opportunity should be available on either side for traders. Discipline and Risk Management are a must to make money in the markets.

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending August 1st 2025

Dear patrons, in an eventful week the markets were firmly in the grip of bears to end the week more than 1% down. Nifty fell for the 5th straight week, marking its longest weekly losing streak in 2025. Nifty Midcap, SmallCap, IT, Realty, PSU Bank, Energy and Auto indices also declined. FMCG emerged as the top gainer, while IT saw its steepest weekly fall of 2025. Monthly chart signals bearish engulfing.

India’s market cap to GDP ratio at 136.8% is near a 20-year high, signaling the market has outpaced economic growth. Valuations remain elevated while earnings have not caught up. On the IIP front though, the Indian industry growth shrunk to 1.5% from 4.9% YoY, showing a major slowdown in activity. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) though, remains bullish on the Indian economy. In its recent update the IMF raised India's growth projection by 20 bps for the current fiscal and by 10 bps for the next. India remains the "Fastest Growing" large economy in the world.

Globally, the US markets had a mixed week. The S&P and Nasdaq were again very bullish, making new lifetime highs on multiple occasions. On the last trading session of the week the US markets fell sharply on account of very weak jobs data. The weak data may prompt the FED to cut interest rates sooner than expected.

Domestically, major reason for fall in the markets remains FII selling. FIIs have been selling Indian stocks relentlessly, while domestic institutions remained consistent buyers to support the markets. Falling INR against the USD provides further impetus to FII selling. The INR fell sharply last week to within touching distance to its recent low levels. The MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meet begins on Monday, and its results are expected on Wednesday. We do not expect much action from the RBI this time around. However, a surprise can't be ruled out as inflation is within the RBI's comfort level and there is a need to provide impetus to industrial growth.

Let us now take a look at the charts and try to figure out movement for the coming week.

Nifty closed a tad below its important support around 24600 on daily charts while just a tad above support on weekly charts. We do not expect big downward movement from these levels and expect a turnaround in Nifty. A close below 24400 however, may lead to further fall towards 24000-23900, while Nifty needs to close above 24800 for any meaningful up move to take place. A move above 25000 is needed for the first signs of getting out of the woods for the Nifty.

BankNifty has been weaker of the two benchmark indices. It has closed below its crucial support level of 56000 on couple of session marking distinct weakness. In coming days BankNifty should find support near 54900-55000 while 56500-56600 should act as stiff resistance.

Sectoral indices barring FMCG bored the brunt of sell off on Friday. Investors should look to accumulate good quality stocks in every dip. A well-diversified portfolio provides a cushion against erratic movements in the markets.

Traders are advised caution in the eventful week. Banking and NBFC stocks may see wild moves owing to MPC decision. Stay nimble footed and adhere to strict stop losses.

Stay Invested!!!

"In commodities, when prices go up, demand goes down. In stocks, when prices go up, demand goes up"~ Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.