Week Ending July 4th 2025

Dear patrons, during the slow news week the markets were also quite dull in activity. Indices spent the entire week consolidating in a tight range of 25650-25350. Higher levels saw supply while demand emerged at lower levels along with short covering. During the week markets closed in the red for three days and managed to clock positive closing on two days.

In yet another move towards improving risk management in the World's largest derivatives market the SEBI has proposed a plethora of measures, The new proposals touch everything from Open Interest calculations to position limits, ban period rules along with pre-open and post- closing market session for Futures. These measures are likely to improve volumes and reduce volatility.

Globally the US markets rallied last week. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq made multiple lifetime highs during the week while the Dow Jones touched multi month highs. European peers were also quite strong and inched northwards. Asian markets were a mixed bag over the past week rallying on odd days and correcting on even days.

Back home, Foreign Investors were sellers consistently over the week while Domestic Investors were buyers. As the deadline for American Tariffs draws closer anxiety among investors is on the rise. The Indian Economy is however expected to remain strong and show a robust growth of around 6.5% in FY26, India is eyeing record-breaking exports in FY26, especially on account of signing FTAs (Free Trade Agreement) with various countries. India's Services PMI rose to a 10-month high of 60.4 in June 2025 on the back of strong domestic demand, higher export orders and steady job creation.

With Q1 FY26 coming to end, we will be entering the corporate results season from the coming week. IT giant TCS will kick start with results on 10th July. Results are likely to be good this time around and we should see sharp growth in select sectors. Overall, it should be satisfactory season for Indian corporates. Markets will see more stock specific action reacting to results, while the indices may remain steady.

Let us now take a look at the charts and try to figure out what lies in store for the coming week on the benchmark indices front.

Nifty spent entire last week consolidating and consistently closing above its 8 EMA (Exponential Moving Average), which, should act as support going into the results season next week. Breach of 25400 may lead Nifty to 25200. A close above 25600 is needed for Nifty to move towards 25800 and above towards new lifetime high levels. Corporate results will play a pivotal role in the movement of Nifty in the coming days. Stock specific action will prevail compared to the indices.

BankNifty was also in a range for the week albeit making new lifetime highs. BankNifty has been and still looking stronger than the Nifty. BankNifty should find support near 56900-57000. Strong support for BankNifty is placed around 56500. As long as BankNifty holds above 56500 it remains "Buy-On-Dips".

Select sectors have been outperforming the broader markets and are likely to persist in the same vein. Select MidCap stocks are looking extremely attractive and are likely to outperform the markets. Investors should look to accumulate good quality stocks in every fall. Markets are likely making a launchpad for a leap towards new highs. 

Stay Invested!!!

“History provides a crucial insight regarding market crises: they are inevitable, painful and ultimately surmountable.” ~ Shelby M.C. Davis

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.