Week Ending July 11th 2025

Dear patrons; after a week of consolidation markets slid on Friday to crack below all important support level of 25200 on the Nifty. All sectoral indices bore the brunt of sell off after IT giant TCS results. The tone set by the first major result in Q2FY26 is not very promising, though some sectors are likely to outperform on results front.

TCS result on the face don't look too bad either, however, higher bottom-line may be attributed to other income and rising USD against the INR. The markets have probably discounted these two factors while reading the numbers. Future results from the IT space are expected to follow suit. The IT index looks weak and a potential fall of up to 10% from current levels to 34200 can't be ruled out. With support around 36000.

Globally, the US markets have remained upbeat, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 both taking out previous lifetime high levels. Crude oil remained steady around $70 and precious metals shined with Silver making new lifetime high in the domestic markets.

Geopolitics has been playing a very crucial role in market movements over the past few weeks. There is some anxiety around the news of China amassing its naval forces around Taiwan and staking its claim on that territory. 2025 is surely a roller coaster ride for everyone, more so for the equity markets.

Kotak Investment Advisors – 12-Month Outlook: 1. Expects financials, capital goods, and select midcap pharma to outperform over the next year. 2. Raised mid/small-cap exposure from 25% to 30% on hopes of earnings rebound post tepid FY25. 3. Maintains 80:20 allocation between domestic and international equities. 4. Overweight on financials, favoring well-managed NBFCs; expects consumption recovery backed by fiscal support and better monsoon. 5. Positive on Gold and Silver for portfolio diversification.

FIIs have been on the wait and watch mode for emerging markets mostly on account of uncertainty on Tariff front. Q1 earnings season kicked off with weak IT result. FIIs have pulled out Rs. 5000 cr so far in July. SEBI crack down on Jane Street has dented F&O volumes.

Let's now take a look at the charts and try to figure out what lies in store for the coming week.

As we can see, Nifty, after spending time in a range, broke it on the downside. It closed just a tad below 25150 breaking important support around 25200. Coming week looks a bit grim for the markets. Nifty should find support around 25000-24900 range. Immediate resistance for Nifty lies around 25350 while 25500 may prove to be very difficult to cross in immediate future. A close below 24900 may lead to further downside towards 24500.

BankNifty is also looking weak for the coming week. It managed to close above its support near 56700. A close below 56700 may lead it towards 56000 which, should act as a strong support. 

Evry dip in the markets is an opportunity for investors to accumulate good quality stocks, particularly in select sectors. Traders need to adhere to strict stop losses and be nimble footed. Markets should provide opportunities on either side.

“One of the very nice things about investing in the stock market is that you learn about all different aspects of the economy. It’s your window into a very large world.”  - Ron Chernow

Stay Invested!!!

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk. 

Week Ending July 4th 2025

Dear patrons, during the slow news week the markets were also quite dull in activity. Indices spent the entire week consolidating in a tight range of 25650-25350. Higher levels saw supply while demand emerged at lower levels along with short covering. During the week markets closed in the red for three days and managed to clock positive closing on two days.

In yet another move towards improving risk management in the World's largest derivatives market the SEBI has proposed a plethora of measures, The new proposals touch everything from Open Interest calculations to position limits, ban period rules along with pre-open and post- closing market session for Futures. These measures are likely to improve volumes and reduce volatility.

Globally the US markets rallied last week. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq made multiple lifetime highs during the week while the Dow Jones touched multi month highs. European peers were also quite strong and inched northwards. Asian markets were a mixed bag over the past week rallying on odd days and correcting on even days.

Back home, Foreign Investors were sellers consistently over the week while Domestic Investors were buyers. As the deadline for American Tariffs draws closer anxiety among investors is on the rise. The Indian Economy is however expected to remain strong and show a robust growth of around 6.5% in FY26, India is eyeing record-breaking exports in FY26, especially on account of signing FTAs (Free Trade Agreement) with various countries. India's Services PMI rose to a 10-month high of 60.4 in June 2025 on the back of strong domestic demand, higher export orders and steady job creation.

With Q1 FY26 coming to end, we will be entering the corporate results season from the coming week. IT giant TCS will kick start with results on 10th July. Results are likely to be good this time around and we should see sharp growth in select sectors. Overall, it should be satisfactory season for Indian corporates. Markets will see more stock specific action reacting to results, while the indices may remain steady.

Let us now take a look at the charts and try to figure out what lies in store for the coming week on the benchmark indices front.

Nifty spent entire last week consolidating and consistently closing above its 8 EMA (Exponential Moving Average), which, should act as support going into the results season next week. Breach of 25400 may lead Nifty to 25200. A close above 25600 is needed for Nifty to move towards 25800 and above towards new lifetime high levels. Corporate results will play a pivotal role in the movement of Nifty in the coming days. Stock specific action will prevail compared to the indices.

BankNifty was also in a range for the week albeit making new lifetime highs. BankNifty has been and still looking stronger than the Nifty. BankNifty should find support near 56900-57000. Strong support for BankNifty is placed around 56500. As long as BankNifty holds above 56500 it remains "Buy-On-Dips".

Select sectors have been outperforming the broader markets and are likely to persist in the same vein. Select MidCap stocks are looking extremely attractive and are likely to outperform the markets. Investors should look to accumulate good quality stocks in every fall. Markets are likely making a launchpad for a leap towards new highs. 

Stay Invested!!!

“History provides a crucial insight regarding market crises: they are inevitable, painful and ultimately surmountable.” ~ Shelby M.C. Davis

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.