Week Ending 03rd May 2024

Dear patrons, the Indian markets have been extremely volatile over the last few days. Big moves on either side intraday have become a norm amid rising vix. During this volatile phase both the benchmark indices on the NSE along with the Sensex have managed to touch record high levels. 

Global markets have also been quite volatile gaining smartly and losing sharply during intraday sessions. The US markets reacted to the FED policy meet outcome by losing sharply one day and recovering all lost ground in subsequent sessions. The FED looks in no hurry to cut interest rates owing to high inflation. Higher interest rates have caused the economic growth to slow down in the US leading to a global slow down.

Geopolitically, world is a much quieter place compared to two weeks back. Middle East is relatively calm rendering crude oil cool off from recent up move. Precious metals, after gaining smartly over last month or so have also seen profit booking.

Domestically, we are in the middle of the World's biggest elections, which are moving smoothly so far. In a month from now a new Government will be in place in India. Indian economy has remained resilient and has been growing at a fast pace, cashing in on demographic dividend with local demand outweighing global demand. Trend for Indian economy is likely to remain in the upward trajectory placing it among top three in near future.

Let's now have a look at what happened in the markets over the last week and what lies in store for coming week.

In a truncated week Nifty managed to scale yet another peak in the vicinity of 22800. It lost considerable ground every time Nifty tried to go past 22800. For the time being it looks like Nifty will spend some time consolidating in a tight range of 22300 to 22800. A close below 22300 may lead to further fall in Nifty towards 21800, which should act as a strong support. 

BankNifty also managed to make a record high last week, although it remained subdued compared to Nifty. BankNifty faces resistance around 50000 mark. It may as well spend some time in the range of 48800-50000 levels. In the event of close below 48200 it should find strong support around 47000 range. Till the time BankNifty is able to hold its head above 48200 it remains "Buy-On-Dips".

Other than the benchmark indices many sectoral indices along with midcap and small cap indices have touched new record high levels. Midcap index looks set for gaining some more with a support around 50550 level. 49800 should act as strong support for Midcap index.

Record collection of GST for the month of March is an indicator to the growth that the Indian economy is witnessing. Rising consumer demand and capex in infrastructure by the government should lead to more growth in coming months, outpacing global peers comfortably, India is marching towards $5 trillion economy.

Investors should try to accumulate fundamentally good stock with every fall. Traders have to be nimble footed and adhere to strict stop losses in these volatile moves. There is ample opportunity available in the market for traders.

Stay Invested!!!

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 19th April 2024

Dear patrons, first of all let me apologize for not posting this blog for over a month. Lot has happened in the markets over this period amid global volatility and geopolitical tension. Not delving too much in the past let us focus on what happened in the last week and try to figure out what is in store for coming week.

Last week all the global markets were jittery on account of geopolitical tension prevailing in the middle east. World is staring at a potential world war if issues between the warring countries are not resolved quickly. In an already fragile atmosphere for global economies in the aftermath of the pandemic, the war could not have come up at a worse time. Global economies are already fighting very high inflation and a war at such a juncture threatens to put crude oil on the boil worsening inflationary pressure on central banks globally.

The US markets were extremely volatile last week due to war as well as diminishing chances of an early interest rate cut. Better than expected inflation data coupled with uncertainty on crude oil front led to selling pressure in the US markets, spreading the same sentiment across the globe.

Back home, our markets also felt the jitters of the ensuing war and lost heavily in first two sessions. After the holiday mid-week, however markets showed some stability and found support around 21800 and rebounded and managed to close above 22000.

As we can see in the above pic Nifty managed to hold on to very crucial support of 21800. Going ahead we believe 21800 will act as strong support for Nifty and we are unlikely to see lower levels. 21800-21600 should act as very strong buying zone for Nifty, whereas 22300 should act a resistance. Close above 22300 may propel Nifty towards 22600-22700 levels. Markets remain "Buy-On-Dips" till the time Nifty manages closing above 21600.

Coming to BankNifty, BankNifty managed to take support around 46600, which on all accounts should act as strong support. 47600-47800 range should act as resistance on BankNifty. Close above 47800 may lead BankNifty towards new All Time High levels.

Investors need to focus on quality and keep accumulating in every fall. Traders should be nimble footed and adhere to strict stop losses keeping in view the volatility in the markets owing to news flow. Markets may remain highly volatile on account of news emerging from the war zone as well as monthly expiry of the derivatives contracts.

“If I’d only followed CNBC’s advice, I’d have a million dollars today. Provided I’d started with a hundred million dollars.” ~ Jon Stewart

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 07th March 2024

Dear patrons, in yet another display of stellar performance, the Indian markets scaled new highs last week. Both the benchmark indices the Nifty as well as Sensex made new lifetime highs in the week. Banking sector proved to be the major booster for indices to reach new highs. Almost all banking stocks were at their all-time high levels last week following robust GDP data and forecast.

Flow of incessant good news for the Indian economy continued last week on the back of impressive GDP figures for Q3FY24. The RBI projected Indian economy to grow by 8% surpassing Government of India's forecast of 7.6% in FY24. Further, rating agency Crisil has forecast Indian economy to grow by 6.8% next fiscal and remain world's fastest growing big economy.

Globally Federal Reserve will declare their monetary policy on 20th March and is expected to maintain status quo. Markets expect rates to come down from as early as May. The Fed chairman's address last week was, however, a misnomer for the markets. The chair indicated that the Fed is ready to cut rates only when economic data supports such rate cut. On the back of these statements, the US markets remained sideways amid volatility.

Let's see what transpired last week and try to forecast what lies ahead for next week.

Nifty, as expected, moved towards 22500 and managed to close a tad below 22500. It was volatile for the week with movement on both sides. Nifty too support around 22200 levels as mentioned in the previous blog. You may read it here Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 2nd March 2024 (amitbajare.blogspot.com). Nifty looks a bit tired and may remain rangebound for the coming week. Action is likely to shift to sectoral indices and certain sectoral indices are likely to outperform the benchmark index while certain other are likely to under perform. Support for Nifty lies around 22300-22200 levels, while on the upside Nifty enters uncharted territory and resistance may be encountered towards 22650-22750 levels.

Bank Nifty's out performance continued last week as well, and it managed to gain in excess of 1% for the week. It moved to touching distance to its all-time high. As expected, it moved up but could not hold on to gains above 48000 and closed a tad above our resistance level of 47800. In the coming week it is expected to move with a positive bias towards lifetime high. Support for BankNifty is placed around 47400-47300 while resistance lies around 48600-48700. 

Broader markets may remain range bound, and action may shift to sectoral indices, with a focus on stock specific moves. Traders may look for opportunities in certain sectors for positive returns.

Happy Investing!!!

1. "To be a successful business owner and investor, you have to be emotionally neutral to winning and losing Winning and losing are just part of the game.” ~ Robert Kiyosaki

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 2nd March 2024

Dear patrons, it has been an eventful last week witnessing yet another Life-Time High on the benchmark indices namely Nifty and Sensex. Markets were volatile though the week on account of February series expiry and witnessed a brutal sell off a day before expiry. Nifty plunged below crucial 21900 level on intraday basis but managed to close above it and continued its upward move towards a new high on commencement of new series on Friday.

On economy front, the Indian economy grew by a whopping 8.4% during Q3FY24. Barring pharma all sectors grew handsomely, some even clocking double digit growth. India is outpacing its contemporaries by some distance where in the second-best growth is registered around 5.5%. The overall estimate for India's growth has also been revised upwards from 7.3% to 7.6%. The Current Account Deficit is also contained within expected range.

Globally all major markets are in good shape with the US markets making new highs. This week it was the turn of Nasdaq to make a new lifetime high, following the S&P. Majority of central banks are likely to ease stand on monetary policy sooner than later which should lead to higher liquidity and more growth. We are most certainly at the peak of interest cycle and should soon witness softening of interest rates worldwide.

Lets now try to figure out what lies in store for us for the coming week.

We can see Nifty falling sharply on Wednesday and then move up even more sharply to regain lost ground and make a new ATH. We had mentioned about 21900 to act as strong support in the last blog. Nifty for a brief period went below 21900 but managed hold head above this level and zoomed beyond 22400 within a span of 3 days. You may read about it here Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 23rd February 2024 (amitbajare.blogspot.com)) 

Nifty may pause for some time and a correction is not ruled out. 22400-22500 range should act as resistance, while 22200-22100 range should act as support. Major support lies around 21800 and may prove to be unbreachable for Nifty

BankNifty has outperformed Nifty last week. As mentioned in the previous blog 47500 still remains elusive. Resistance for BankNifty has shifts upward this week towards 47800-47900 range and support moves to 46700-46600 levels.

In the mean accumulate good quality stocks in every dip.

Stay Invested!!!

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 23rd February 2024

Dear patrons, yet another week went by when the benchmark indices namely Nifty and Sensex have posted new All-Time-Highs. We had clearly mentioned in the last blog that Nifty is set to achieve newer highs and the Nifty managed to reach very close to 22300 levels. (you may read it here Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 16th February 2024 (amitbajare.blogspot.com).

Globally, almost all the markets were in a range lacking any specific direction. Minutes of the US Federal Reserve's January meeting were out last week. Overall there is optimism that policy undertaken by the Fed has managed to reduce the inflation. The minutes also suggest that the rate rise cycle is at its end and we may soon move towards rate reduction. However, the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates.

Back home, we will soon be gripped by election fever and markets may take direction based on sentiment. Markets seem to be digesting sharp moves and appear to have exhausted. We may witness yet another week of indecisive moves on the indices.

Let's try to figure out what lies in store for us for the coming week.

We can clearly see that Nifty managed to hold its crucial support around 21900 and moved up sharply to make a new All-Time-High. Nifty also honored resistance for the resistance for the week around 22300 as stated in the previous blog. For the coming week support for Nifty is placed around 22000-22100. Strong support is visible around 21900. As long as Nifty stays above 21900, it remains buy-on-dips. Resistance for Nifty lies around 22400-22500.

BankNifty on the other hand has shown bigger moves on either side. Support for BankNifty is placed around 46500-46300 levels, meanwhile resistance lies around 47400-47500 range. BankNifty also looks a little fatigued and may remain in a range.

A word of caution for traders though, coming week being monthly expiry week, markets may move wildly even within a range. Traders need to be nimble footed and adhere to strict stop losses particularly in the derivatives segment.

Midcap index looks set for some upward move over the next week. Stock specific action should remain the flavor of the week and some stocks may outperform the broader index by some distance.

The mantra remains the same "keep accumulating good quality stocks" with every dip. 

"The philosophy of the rich and the poor is this: the rich invest their money and spend what is left. The poor spend their money and invest what is left.” Robert Kiyosaki

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 16th February 2024

Dear patrons, the Indian bourses had pretty good time last week, with benchmark indices clocking more than 1% gains amidst steady news flow and robust global markets. Midcap index also showed some strength gaining ground lost at the start of the week.

Globally two major economies namely Japan and the UK are in a slowdown, however markets in these countries are performing very well. The Nikkei is at an all-time high, while the FTSE is also near its high. The US markets slumped at the start of the week after inflation eased a bit but not up to the expectations of the markets. Inflation remaining stubborn is bad news for the markets as it may lead the Fed to maintain status quo for a longer period of time, thus slowing down growth of the World's largest economy.

Indian markets have broken out of a range over last week. Broader range for Nifty remained in the band of 21500-21800, Nifty broke out of this range last week and managed to sustain above 21900 comfortably. Coming week action may shift to BankNifty with crucial HDFCBANK meet.

Let us try to figure out what lies in store for Nifty and BankNifty for the coming week.

Nifty managed to close above crucial resistance of 21900. It looks set for an up move towards new All Time High and further higher. 22200-22300 should act as resistance and support is placed around 21850. Till the time Nifty stays above 21850 it remains "Buy-On-Dips".

BankNifty also looks set for further up move. Resistance for BankNifty is placed around 47300-47400 levels. Support lies around 45900-45800 level. HDFCBANK analyst meet may act as a definitive factor for any move in the BankNifty for short time. Volatile move on either side can not be ruled out on Monday.

Traders may look to buy good quality stocks in every dip.

“Rule number one: Don’t lose money. Rule number two: Don’t forget rule number one.” ~ Warren Buffett

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Indian Knowledge Tradition

When we say Indian it automatically points to Hinduism. Hinduism is the only religion in the world that is scientific and allows debate in every manner possible, ranging from Upnishadas to modern science. The amalgamation of spirituality and science has been exemplary in Hinduism. Our quest for knowledge and know how has been transcending through generations from eons. Such has been our relentless pursuit for knowledge that India is mother to almost all inventions in the world be it medical science or rocket science. We are the race which gave this world zero, without which no worthwhile scientific invention was possible, to quote Albert Einstein, arguably the greatest scientist world has seen. We are the ones who provided the world with medical science. The Vedas are not only religious scriptures but they are also a rich source of knowledge in every field. One of the Vedas (pardon me for not remembering exactly which one) has know how about music, one talks about architecture some other talks about aircrafts. Vedas is one rich Gangotri of knowledge which we all should be proud of. The knowledge our ancestors had and passed on is so great that even in 21^st century the west is not able to decipher it. Take for example the use of Haldi (turmeric) as an antiseptic has been known to us for generations whereas the west got to know about it recently. Same is the case with our architecture, Ghrishneshwar temple is said to be impossible to build even today (as per Discovery channel) and our ancestors did it thousands of years ago. There are innumerable examples of such marvels throughout the country which is impossible to reproduce even today. This was not possible without the knowledge in finer details about every aspect of science. India was under attack for centuries by Mughals and later Britishers. British rule was much more harmful than the Mughals. They not only pillaged trillions of $ of wealth but took our rich texts and robbed us of our ancestral knowledge fountain. The world talks about seven wonders, come to India we will show you a thousand. Ranging from step well in Gujarat to Leaning temple in Uttar Pradesh (which, by the way has 9 degree slope compared 6 degrees in leaning tower of Pisa) to Brihaddeshwar temple in Karnataka to Jagannath temple in Odisha. The list is endless. Hinduism has been unmatched source of knowledge.