Week Ending 26th January 2024

Dear patrons; in a truncated week; the Indian markets were volatile on account of monthly expiry of January contracts. Benchmark indices lost decent ground last week amid global stability.

Globally news flow was quite slow and it reflected on the markets; which remained mostly range bound with a mildly positive bias. Indian markets saw spike in volatility. Coming week may see increased volatility owing to Union Budget (Vote of Accounts). This being the last budget before new government comes to power, may be a populist one and markets should react to it.

FIIs have been consistent sellers in the markets over the last few days, while domestic Institutions tried to support the markets with intermittent buying. We believe the trend of selling by FIIs should reverse in coming week and markets should move northwards.

Let's see what charts have in store for us for the coming week

As we can see in the above picture; Nifty was extremely volatile losing heavily one day, recovering the next day and losing again on the last day of the trading week. Nifty has closed substantially below its support around 21500. For the coming week immediate support for Nifty lies around 21200 and major support lies around 20500. It is likely to move in a broader range of 20500-21500. In case Nifty manages to close above 21500, we should see some more upside and conversely a close below 21200 may see further slide towards 20500.

BankNifty on the other hand has been punished severely over the last few weeks. Banking giant HDFC Bank bore the brunt of the bears owing to its result and post result commentary. Banking sector results have been a dampener for the markets, which were pretty buoyant after the IT sector results. We do, however, believe that worst is almost over for the banks, and they are ready for an up move. Support for BankNifty lies around 44500 while resistance lies around 45670-45750 range. 

Investors should look to accumulate good quality stocks in every dip. Traders need to remain vigilant and nimble footed. Event driven markets are always volatile, traders should adhere to strict stop losses and look to book profits regularly.

Happy Investing!!!

“Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction” ~ Warren Buffett

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 19th January 2024

Dear patrons, first of all let me take this opportunity to congratulate you on the civilizational renaissance of India with the grand opening of the "Ram Mandir" and consecration of "Ram Lalla" in the holy city of Ayodhya. This event dawns a new era of economic development of India.

Indian stock markets are beginning this week by overtaking Hong Kong markets and have become fourth largest markets in the world. Indian markets are already world's largest derivatives markets. 

Globally things were good and most of the stock markets around the world traded positively. Geopolitical events were mostly discarded by the markets. Locally result season has been pretty good and are expected to remain good.

Coming week is truncated, with only three sessions in monthly expiry week. Friday being holiday on account of Republic Day.

Let's try to decipher what lies in store for us for this truncated week.

As stated in the previous blog Nifty faced resistance around 22100 and fell sharply, losing more than 2% in a single session and took support around 21500-21600 range. You may read about it here Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 12th January 2024 (amitbajare.blogspot.com) For the coming week Nifty may remain volatile with a positive bias and may try to retest recent highs owing to short covering.

BankNifty fell sharply along with Nifty and has remained in a range there after. It should find strong support around 45700 and resistance around 46600-47000 range amid volatility.

Traders should look to buy on dips with a positive bias.

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 12th January 2024

Dear patrons, welcome to yet another edition of our weekly blog. It was a roller coaster ride on the bourses last week. Markets spent most part of the week consolidating in a narrow range and broke out of the range in style on Friday after IT giants Infosys and TCS declared good set of numbers.

The markets seem to have liked the results and the stocks rallied in anticipation of interest rate reduction around the globe. As the Dow theory says "Markets always discount all information". If interest rates do come down in near future, we are likely to see improved spending on IT by majority of the industry resulting in strong balance sheets for the IT companies.

Global markets were also in a range with some negative bias barring Japan, where the Nikkei made a 35 year high amidst global consolidation. Result season in India has kicked off in style and we expect it continue in the same vein. Indian economy looks to be in great shape and is likely to take off after gaining substantial speed over the last couple of years.

Let's see what transpired in the week gone by and try to analyze what lies in store for the coming week.

As stated in the last blog, Nifty spent some more time consolidating in the range of 21500 and 21750. We had stated in the last blog that Nifty may spend more time in a range before moving up. (You may read about it here Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 5th January 2024 (amitbajare.blogspot.com)). After spending time in a range Nifty broke out on Friday to make yet another lifetime high. We expect Indian markets to continue outperforming its peers on a consistent basis. Nifty may find some resistance around 22100-22200 range, while support lies around 21600-21400 range.

BankNifty has been subdued compared to the Nifty. Resistance for BankNifty lies around 47900-48000 range. It should find support around 47600-47400 range. BankNifty should move forward towards 49000 once it manages close above 48000.

As stated in the last blog, stock specific moves were observed in the midcap segment, with many stock hitting lifetime highs or 52-week highs.

Markets are looking in a buoyant mood with the start of Q3FY24 results season. It is advisable to look for buying opportunities in the markets. There should be ample opportunity to deploy funds and make good returns in near term.

Happy Investing!!!

"Money is the most egalitarian force in society. It confers power on whoever holds it"~ Roger Starr 

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 5th January 2024

Dear patrons, first of all let me wish you a very happy and profitable 2024. Previous year has been great for wealth creation in the Indian markets and we expect this trend to continue with India remaining the fastest growing big economy in the world.

Last week most of the global markets has a truncated week on account of new year. Action was muted as festivities took over. Indian markets also remained in a range amid volatility. We had predicted in the last blog that Nifty should find support around 21500. During the fall in fist half of the week Nifty did touch 21500 and moved up. You may read it here (Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 29th December 2023 (amitbajare.blogspot.com),

India's GDP growth has been revised upwards to 7.3% from 7% previously. Manufacturing activity is expected to contribute handsomely to this growth which should propel the markets further in due course of time.

Let us look at what lies in store for the coming week.

As expected Nifty spent the last week in a range after a sharp up move last month. We expect the Nifty to spend some more time in consolidation mode before moving up again. A corrective move towards 21000 can not be ruled out. In fact, it would be very healthy for the markets to undergo some correction. Action should now shift from indices to stocks. Stock specific moves would be the flavor for next couple of weeks.

BankNifty has been moving in a larger range compared to Nifty. Move above 48300 should add to strength of BankNifty for a move towards 49000. Close below 47700 may take it towards 47400.

Traders should focus on stock specific moves rather than index, remain nimble footed and look to book profits on regular basis.

Happy Investing!!!

“The best way to measure your investing success is not by whether you’re beating the market but by whether you’ve put in place a financial plan and a behavioral discipline that are likely to get you where you want to go.”

Benjamin Graham

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 29th December 2023

Dear patrons, by the time this blog reaches you the year would almost be over. What an year for the markets this has been! Stellar performance by all indices over the last few months was witnessed. Almost all indices posted new lifetime highs. Benchmark Nifty has been on a roll, adding to wealth of investors every passing day.

Indian economy is also outperforming global peers by some distance. India's CAD (Current Account Deficit) has also narrowed to $ 8.3 bn from $ 9.2 bn Q on Q for July-September quarter. Decline in CAD was on account of lower merchandise trade deficit and higher services exports. Flow of good news on economy front has been incessant and so has been the rise of the Indian capital markets. We expect this trend to continue and gather more momentum every passing quarter with rising industrial output, once manufacturing also starts to contribute sizably to the economy. Good time is ahead for investors.

Globally not much action was witnessed as the Holiday fever took over. The US indices remained range bound with a positive bias.

In the last blog we had predicted that markets will remain volatile with a positive bias with the December expiry in sight. You may read about it here Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 22nd December 2023 (amitbajare.blogspot.com). As mentioned in the previous blog Nifty did end the year on a high and posted highest weekly closing. Once Nifty broke the barrier of 21600 the move towards 21800 was swift.

Let's see what charts have in store for us in the new year.

For the first time in the week Nifty did not make a higher high on Friday. Nifty looks fatigued on charts and RSI also suggests so. We may witness some fall in Nifty over next few sessions. 21500 should act as first support if indeed some correction sets in. If Nifty closes below 21500 further down move cannot be ruled out with strong support around 21000.

BankNifty is also showing some tiredness. RSI is also showing divergence as in case of Nifty. However, it should find first support near 48000 not far from current closing. Close below 47900 may open further downside for BankNifty with strong support around 47100-47000 range.

Time for traders to become cautious and follow strict stop losses. Booking profits whether big or miniscule and remaining cash ready looks to be the most prudent strategy for traders to make the most of any corrective move on the bourses.

Long term investors may get their portfolio's health checked and look to switch from underperforming stocks to outperforming ones and stay invested.

Happy Investing!!!

Wish you a very happy and profitable new year!!!

"I am very opinionated and sometimes a very irritating character but, I have learnt that the quest to learn is a journey, not a destination." ~ Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 22nd December 2023

Dear patrons, yet another stellar week has passed on the bourses, with the benchmark index posting new "All-Time-High". It has been a dominant display by the bulls for yet another week, barring an exception of the mid week session where, Nifty lost close to 2% witnessing year's biggest intraday fall. Bulls. however took charge in late hours during the penultimate session and continued to take markets higher.

There was a sharp fall on Wednesday, wherein Nifty touched an "All-Time-High" and slid quickly and sharply. A number of attributions were given for the fall. RBI's announcement that Indian inflation was above its expectation and may need some more time to come down might have spooked the markets, leading to a healthy fall. On the other hand IMF restoring faith in Indian economy and declaring India to be fastest growing large economy restored some faith and we saw markets recover on following days.

Globally, there is optimism that interest rates world over may stabilize and we may witness rates coming down sooner than later. This optimism lead to a rally in almost all the developed as well as emerging markets.

Another good news from the world of investment is that India Weightage increased from 7.7% to 16.6% in MSCI EM. This FPI money will get pumped in Nifty 100 stocks. Which can trigger a big rally in Large Cap & Larger Midcaps.

Let's now have a look at the charts and try to figure out what lies in store for the last week of the year.

We can clearly see Nifty recovering from a fall in the above chart. We had suggested that Nifty has resistance around 21500-21600 level and strong support around 21000 level. Nifty made a high of 21593 and fell sharply towards 21000 on Wednesday, follow up fall on Thursday saw Nifty touching sub 21000 level and recover sharply and settling the week comfortably above 21300. You may read it here (Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 15th December 2023 (amitbajare.blogspot.com).

For the coming week, we expect Nifty to remain volatile owing to monthly expiry of derivatives contracts. Moves on either side may be sharp but the bias remains positive. We expect Nifty to end the year on a High. Also next week being a truncated week may see higher volatility.

BankNifty on the other hand remained subdued with intraday volatility remaining high. It has closed marginally below its support on daily charts, but bias on BankNifty also remains positive. 

Indian markets are expected to remain bullish and surge ahead. Profitable times lie ahead for the investors.

Stay Invested!!!

“Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.” – By Paul Samuelson

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 15th December 2023

Dear patrons; it has been a stupendous week for the markets. The Nifty scaled new highs everyday shattering record after record, So vicious has been the charge by the Bulls that Bears are nowhere to be found, paving way for an astonishing rise of around 500 points in a week.

The rally on the bourses was effected by a strong in flow of good news on economic front. Firstly the central bank, RBI held status quo in interest rates and revised the GDP growth upwards. We are likely at the peak of the interest rate cycle and the market expects rates to come down in near future, leading to even further rise in the GDP growth. CPI & IIP data was also released during the week. CPI, although above RBI's comfort level, is still manageable and likely to cool off with Kharif crop. IIP data was great booster for the market. At the peak of interest rates IIP has been keeping a fast pace upwards. In case interest rates do come down in near future it will lead to further rise in industrial production providing further impetus to rise in the equity markets.

Globally, the Federal Reserve in the US also kept rates unchanged and was dovish in its commentary for the future rate cycle. US markets also expect rates to come down in near future providing impetus to growth in the World's largest economy. If rates in the US do come down as expected, it should lead to more fund flows to emerging markets like India.

Let's have a look at what happened on the charts last week

Nifty, as is evident from the above figure is at an all time high and in no resistance zone. Every dip in the Nifty is being bought into. As we had stated in the last blog Nifty still remains "Buy-On-Dips". Nifty remains in a very strong up trend and is likely to inch forward. Support for Nifty is around 21000 and resistance around 21500-21600. Up trend in Nifty remains intact till the time it closes below 20500. 

BankNifty, which was the leader in the last run lagged behind in the first part of this up trend but more than made up for the laggardness in the last couple of weeks to post closing above 48000 level. BankNifty has also entered an uncharted territory and is in no resistance zone. Support for BankNifty is placed around 47100-47000. and it may face resistance around 48500-48600.

All in all first fortnight of December has been a dream come true rally for the Bulls and investors have become richer every passing day. We expect many such moves in coming years and we should see Nifty becoming a 6 digit index in a decade or so.

Till such time keep accumulating good quality stocks.

Happy Investing!!!

"Trend in the market remains unchanged until and unless clear reversal signals occur" ~ Charles Dow (Dow Theory)

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.