Week Ending 07th March 2024

Dear patrons, in yet another display of stellar performance, the Indian markets scaled new highs last week. Both the benchmark indices the Nifty as well as Sensex made new lifetime highs in the week. Banking sector proved to be the major booster for indices to reach new highs. Almost all banking stocks were at their all-time high levels last week following robust GDP data and forecast.

Flow of incessant good news for the Indian economy continued last week on the back of impressive GDP figures for Q3FY24. The RBI projected Indian economy to grow by 8% surpassing Government of India's forecast of 7.6% in FY24. Further, rating agency Crisil has forecast Indian economy to grow by 6.8% next fiscal and remain world's fastest growing big economy.

Globally Federal Reserve will declare their monetary policy on 20th March and is expected to maintain status quo. Markets expect rates to come down from as early as May. The Fed chairman's address last week was, however, a misnomer for the markets. The chair indicated that the Fed is ready to cut rates only when economic data supports such rate cut. On the back of these statements, the US markets remained sideways amid volatility.

Let's see what transpired last week and try to forecast what lies ahead for next week.

Nifty, as expected, moved towards 22500 and managed to close a tad below 22500. It was volatile for the week with movement on both sides. Nifty too support around 22200 levels as mentioned in the previous blog. You may read it here Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 2nd March 2024 (amitbajare.blogspot.com). Nifty looks a bit tired and may remain rangebound for the coming week. Action is likely to shift to sectoral indices and certain sectoral indices are likely to outperform the benchmark index while certain other are likely to under perform. Support for Nifty lies around 22300-22200 levels, while on the upside Nifty enters uncharted territory and resistance may be encountered towards 22650-22750 levels.

Bank Nifty's out performance continued last week as well, and it managed to gain in excess of 1% for the week. It moved to touching distance to its all-time high. As expected, it moved up but could not hold on to gains above 48000 and closed a tad above our resistance level of 47800. In the coming week it is expected to move with a positive bias towards lifetime high. Support for BankNifty is placed around 47400-47300 while resistance lies around 48600-48700. 

Broader markets may remain range bound, and action may shift to sectoral indices, with a focus on stock specific moves. Traders may look for opportunities in certain sectors for positive returns.

Happy Investing!!!

1. "To be a successful business owner and investor, you have to be emotionally neutral to winning and losing Winning and losing are just part of the game.” ~ Robert Kiyosaki

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 2nd March 2024

Dear patrons, it has been an eventful last week witnessing yet another Life-Time High on the benchmark indices namely Nifty and Sensex. Markets were volatile though the week on account of February series expiry and witnessed a brutal sell off a day before expiry. Nifty plunged below crucial 21900 level on intraday basis but managed to close above it and continued its upward move towards a new high on commencement of new series on Friday.

On economy front, the Indian economy grew by a whopping 8.4% during Q3FY24. Barring pharma all sectors grew handsomely, some even clocking double digit growth. India is outpacing its contemporaries by some distance where in the second-best growth is registered around 5.5%. The overall estimate for India's growth has also been revised upwards from 7.3% to 7.6%. The Current Account Deficit is also contained within expected range.

Globally all major markets are in good shape with the US markets making new highs. This week it was the turn of Nasdaq to make a new lifetime high, following the S&P. Majority of central banks are likely to ease stand on monetary policy sooner than later which should lead to higher liquidity and more growth. We are most certainly at the peak of interest cycle and should soon witness softening of interest rates worldwide.

Lets now try to figure out what lies in store for us for the coming week.

We can see Nifty falling sharply on Wednesday and then move up even more sharply to regain lost ground and make a new ATH. We had mentioned about 21900 to act as strong support in the last blog. Nifty for a brief period went below 21900 but managed hold head above this level and zoomed beyond 22400 within a span of 3 days. You may read about it here Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 23rd February 2024 (amitbajare.blogspot.com)) 

Nifty may pause for some time and a correction is not ruled out. 22400-22500 range should act as resistance, while 22200-22100 range should act as support. Major support lies around 21800 and may prove to be unbreachable for Nifty

BankNifty has outperformed Nifty last week. As mentioned in the previous blog 47500 still remains elusive. Resistance for BankNifty has shifts upward this week towards 47800-47900 range and support moves to 46700-46600 levels.

In the mean accumulate good quality stocks in every dip.

Stay Invested!!!

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 23rd February 2024

Dear patrons, yet another week went by when the benchmark indices namely Nifty and Sensex have posted new All-Time-Highs. We had clearly mentioned in the last blog that Nifty is set to achieve newer highs and the Nifty managed to reach very close to 22300 levels. (you may read it here Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 16th February 2024 (amitbajare.blogspot.com).

Globally, almost all the markets were in a range lacking any specific direction. Minutes of the US Federal Reserve's January meeting were out last week. Overall there is optimism that policy undertaken by the Fed has managed to reduce the inflation. The minutes also suggest that the rate rise cycle is at its end and we may soon move towards rate reduction. However, the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates.

Back home, we will soon be gripped by election fever and markets may take direction based on sentiment. Markets seem to be digesting sharp moves and appear to have exhausted. We may witness yet another week of indecisive moves on the indices.

Let's try to figure out what lies in store for us for the coming week.

We can clearly see that Nifty managed to hold its crucial support around 21900 and moved up sharply to make a new All-Time-High. Nifty also honored resistance for the resistance for the week around 22300 as stated in the previous blog. For the coming week support for Nifty is placed around 22000-22100. Strong support is visible around 21900. As long as Nifty stays above 21900, it remains buy-on-dips. Resistance for Nifty lies around 22400-22500.

BankNifty on the other hand has shown bigger moves on either side. Support for BankNifty is placed around 46500-46300 levels, meanwhile resistance lies around 47400-47500 range. BankNifty also looks a little fatigued and may remain in a range.

A word of caution for traders though, coming week being monthly expiry week, markets may move wildly even within a range. Traders need to be nimble footed and adhere to strict stop losses particularly in the derivatives segment.

Midcap index looks set for some upward move over the next week. Stock specific action should remain the flavor of the week and some stocks may outperform the broader index by some distance.

The mantra remains the same "keep accumulating good quality stocks" with every dip. 

"The philosophy of the rich and the poor is this: the rich invest their money and spend what is left. The poor spend their money and invest what is left.” Robert Kiyosaki

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 16th February 2024

Dear patrons, the Indian bourses had pretty good time last week, with benchmark indices clocking more than 1% gains amidst steady news flow and robust global markets. Midcap index also showed some strength gaining ground lost at the start of the week.

Globally two major economies namely Japan and the UK are in a slowdown, however markets in these countries are performing very well. The Nikkei is at an all-time high, while the FTSE is also near its high. The US markets slumped at the start of the week after inflation eased a bit but not up to the expectations of the markets. Inflation remaining stubborn is bad news for the markets as it may lead the Fed to maintain status quo for a longer period of time, thus slowing down growth of the World's largest economy.

Indian markets have broken out of a range over last week. Broader range for Nifty remained in the band of 21500-21800, Nifty broke out of this range last week and managed to sustain above 21900 comfortably. Coming week action may shift to BankNifty with crucial HDFCBANK meet.

Let us try to figure out what lies in store for Nifty and BankNifty for the coming week.

Nifty managed to close above crucial resistance of 21900. It looks set for an up move towards new All Time High and further higher. 22200-22300 should act as resistance and support is placed around 21850. Till the time Nifty stays above 21850 it remains "Buy-On-Dips".

BankNifty also looks set for further up move. Resistance for BankNifty is placed around 47300-47400 levels. Support lies around 45900-45800 level. HDFCBANK analyst meet may act as a definitive factor for any move in the BankNifty for short time. Volatile move on either side can not be ruled out on Monday.

Traders may look to buy good quality stocks in every dip.

“Rule number one: Don’t lose money. Rule number two: Don’t forget rule number one.” ~ Warren Buffett

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Indian Knowledge Tradition

When we say Indian it automatically points to Hinduism. Hinduism is the only religion in the world that is scientific and allows debate in every manner possible, ranging from Upnishadas to modern science. The amalgamation of spirituality and science has been exemplary in Hinduism. Our quest for knowledge and know how has been transcending through generations from eons. Such has been our relentless pursuit for knowledge that India is mother to almost all inventions in the world be it medical science or rocket science. We are the race which gave this world zero, without which no worthwhile scientific invention was possible, to quote Albert Einstein, arguably the greatest scientist world has seen. We are the ones who provided the world with medical science. The Vedas are not only religious scriptures but they are also a rich source of knowledge in every field. One of the Vedas (pardon me for not remembering exactly which one) has know how about music, one talks about architecture some other talks about aircrafts. Vedas is one rich Gangotri of knowledge which we all should be proud of. The knowledge our ancestors had and passed on is so great that even in 21^st century the west is not able to decipher it. Take for example the use of Haldi (turmeric) as an antiseptic has been known to us for generations whereas the west got to know about it recently. Same is the case with our architecture, Ghrishneshwar temple is said to be impossible to build even today (as per Discovery channel) and our ancestors did it thousands of years ago. There are innumerable examples of such marvels throughout the country which is impossible to reproduce even today. This was not possible without the knowledge in finer details about every aspect of science. India was under attack for centuries by Mughals and later Britishers. British rule was much more harmful than the Mughals. They not only pillaged trillions of $ of wealth but took our rich texts and robbed us of our ancestral knowledge fountain. The world talks about seven wonders, come to India we will show you a thousand. Ranging from step well in Gujarat to Leaning temple in Uttar Pradesh (which, by the way has 9 degree slope compared 6 degrees in leaning tower of Pisa) to Brihaddeshwar temple in Karnataka to Jagannath temple in Odisha. The list is endless. Hinduism has been unmatched source of knowledge.

Week Ending 9th February 2024

Dear patrons, markets have been quite volatile over last week. With important events like the Budget and the Monetary policy behind us, we should see a definitive direction setting-in, in the markets. 

For the straight sixth time RBI maintained status quo on interest rates, leading to heavy profit booking in financial stocks barring SBI. Almost all central banks around the world have been maintaining interest rates constant over last few months. Unrest in the middle east may push Crude Oil rates northwards putting pressure on inflation leading central banks to hold interest rates.

Globally, the biggest markets i.e. the US markets have been on a roll and inching higher, creating All-Time Highs. The S&P Index crossed 5000 mark for the first time in history last week, following Federal Reserve commentary on inflation and interest rates.

Back home, result season has been pretty impressive barring a few exceptions and we believe that the companies about to post results should show decent performance. Indian economy has remained resilient during geopolitical as well as financial turmoil around the globe. This behavior of the economy augurs well for investors in the market. Indian economy is likely to scale higher at a great pace once things around the world normalize.

Let's see what happened last week and try to figure out what lies in store for the next week on charts.

We can see Nifty reacting to RBI policy on the penultimate trading session for the week with a sharp fall towards 21600 and recover some lost ground On Friday. 21500-21600 remained strong support range for Nifty as mentioned in the last blog (You may read it hear Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 2nd February 2024 (amitbajare.blogspot.com)). For the coming week support for Nifty shifts to 21700-21600 range. 

BankNifty remained volatile over the week with big swings in both directions during day. It failed to cross the 46200-barrier mentioned in the last blog. Strong support for BankNifty is placed around 44900. We are likely to see surge in BankNifty in coming week on the up side and higher levels should be visible pretty soon. Resistance lies around 46000-46100 range crossing which, is crucial for BankNifty to move further upwards.

 "You cannot make profits in the stock market unless you have the ability to bear losses." ~ Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 2nd February 2024

Dear patrons, last week we saw two big events unfolding and markets reacting to these events. Markets were volatile and moved in both directions substantially, gaining one day and losing next day to regain lost ground the next day. After a sombre expiry for the January series markets had a cheerful beginning for the February series and moved up sharply, only to lose ground equally sharply next day. Penultimate day to the Budget saw relatively less movement.

Globally the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. Inflation being the hindrance in cutting interest rates. US markets however, remained resilient and barring a dip immediately after announcement of policy they remained buoyant and inched higher afterwards.

Locally, Budget was presented on 1st February. It being Vote on Account (or interim Budget) did not have much impact on the markets. Most of the policy decisions will only be taken in a full-fledged Budget in July. Some key points in the interim Budget being restricting Fiscal Deficit to 5.1% from current 5.8%. There is major thrust on infrastructure spending, and Defense spending has also risen with focus remaining on "Atma Nirbhar Bharat".

Let's see what happened last week and try to figure out what lies in store for the coming week in the markets

Nifty managed to sustain above 21500 level, which acted as resistance for January series expiry. As soon as it broke above 21500, move upward was swift and it made an All Time High on Friday. For the coming week resistance for Nifty is placed around 22200-22300 level and support lies around 216000-21500 level. Markets may react to banking giant SBI's results on Monday and things should normalize after initial reaction.

BankNifty on the other hand has remained subdued almost entire January series. We believe time is ripe for BankNifty to move up. Resistance for BankNifty is placed around 46200-46300. Once it manages to sustain above these levels BankNifty should lead rally in the markets. Support for BankNifty lies around 45700. 

Traders can adopt "Buy-On-Dips" strategy. Investors should look to accumulate good quality stocks in every dip.

Happy Investing!!!

"Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach” ~ Peter Lynch

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.