Week Ending August 23rd 2024

Dear patrons, after a lackluster first fortnight in August, bulls roared back in action and took control of the Indian markets amidst global rally. Positive news flow from across the globe as well as incessant buying by domestic investors propelled the benchmark index within touching distance from all time high level.

Although, the FIIs have sold close to 29000 Cr worth of stocks, buying by domestic funds kept Indian markets from sinking lower. The markets did correct close to 5% from the top. Lot of stocks are available at a handsome discount, particularly in the mid and small cap segment.

Globally the mood was buoyant owing to dovish statement by the Federal Reserve Chairman regarding rate cuts. The Fed chairman made it clear that he is now looking to cut rates as early as next month. The quantum of the cut will depend on further economic data. The intent by the Federal Reserve augurs well for the markets globally. We expect once the rates are slashed in the US, lot of bankers around the world will follow suit and lower interest rates, triggering massive liquidity infusion in the economic set up and in turn giving added fillip to the stock markets.

Back home, Indian markets have made steady gains over the week gone by. Benchmark, Nifty clocked over 1% gain and closed just a tad below its all-time high weekly closing. BankNifty has also performed well over the last week closing well above its resistance around 50800.

Let's take a look at technicals and try to figure out what lies in store for the coming week.

As we can see Nifty is approaching its all-time high levels. We expect it to surpass these highs in the coming week. The global markets are supportive of the up move and coming week being August series expiry week, we may witness a rally on account of short covering. 24600-24500 remains strong support range for Nifty whereas 25100-25200 should act as resistance. In case Nifty manages to close above 25200, it may see sharp move towards 25500 and above,

BankNifty remained range bound with a negative bias over the first fortnight of August and bounced back towards its crucial resistance of around 51000 in the later half. It should find support around 50800-50600 range, while resistance lies around 51100 and above at 51400-51500 range.

Many of the sectoral indices have outperformed the benchmark indices and we believe the trend should continue over next week. Volatility may be high due to monthly expiry. Traders need to adhere to strict stop losses and avoid over leveraging. Any dip in the markets should be utilized to accumulate good quality stocks.

Stay Invested!!!

"The reason you need a trading plan is to ensure you don't trade based on emotion" ~ Nial Fuller

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 16th August 2024

Dear patrons, we are witness to one of the most enthralling periods in our stock markets. Amid chaos globally on economic front India is emerging as a shining star and hope for the World. Indian stock markets are part of this resurgence, and we believe we are poised for a much more in time to come.

In a truncated news heavy week markets started a bit slow and couldn't decide direction. Important numbers like IIP, CPI were to be announced locally as well as globally. Inflation dropped to a 3 year low in the US, bolstering hope for a earlier than expected and higher than expected rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Other economic data also suggests that the World's largest economy is trying to recover. Last week the US markets surged more than 5% whereas the Japanese markets saw a rise of a whopping 9%. Our own markets were very subdued at the start of the week but returned from the Independence holiday and had a stellar rally ending a not so good week at mid-week session to a decent week at the end.

Falling crude oil prices augur well for the Indian markets along with robust corporate earnings and strong retail participation. We expect the markets to continue momentum next week amid global rally.

Let's have a look at technicals and try to figure out what lies in store for the coming week.

Nifty found support around 24000 levels and reversed sharply Friday to close above 24500. Nifty may face resistance around 24600-24700 levels and strong support around 24000. Close above 24700 may lead Nifty towards 25000 and above. Setor specific action is likely to continue in the markets with certain sectors outperforming the Index. Certain Mid and Small cap stocks are also likely to outperform the Indices.

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.