Week Ending 26th January 2024

Dear patrons; in a truncated week; the Indian markets were volatile on account of monthly expiry of January contracts. Benchmark indices lost decent ground last week amid global stability.

Globally news flow was quite slow and it reflected on the markets; which remained mostly range bound with a mildly positive bias. Indian markets saw spike in volatility. Coming week may see increased volatility owing to Union Budget (Vote of Accounts). This being the last budget before new government comes to power, may be a populist one and markets should react to it.

FIIs have been consistent sellers in the markets over the last few days, while domestic Institutions tried to support the markets with intermittent buying. We believe the trend of selling by FIIs should reverse in coming week and markets should move northwards.

Let's see what charts have in store for us for the coming week

As we can see in the above picture; Nifty was extremely volatile losing heavily one day, recovering the next day and losing again on the last day of the trading week. Nifty has closed substantially below its support around 21500. For the coming week immediate support for Nifty lies around 21200 and major support lies around 20500. It is likely to move in a broader range of 20500-21500. In case Nifty manages to close above 21500, we should see some more upside and conversely a close below 21200 may see further slide towards 20500.

BankNifty on the other hand has been punished severely over the last few weeks. Banking giant HDFC Bank bore the brunt of the bears owing to its result and post result commentary. Banking sector results have been a dampener for the markets, which were pretty buoyant after the IT sector results. We do, however, believe that worst is almost over for the banks, and they are ready for an up move. Support for BankNifty lies around 44500 while resistance lies around 45670-45750 range. 

Investors should look to accumulate good quality stocks in every dip. Traders need to remain vigilant and nimble footed. Event driven markets are always volatile, traders should adhere to strict stop losses and look to book profits regularly.

Happy Investing!!!

“Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction” ~ Warren Buffett

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 19th January 2024

Dear patrons, first of all let me take this opportunity to congratulate you on the civilizational renaissance of India with the grand opening of the "Ram Mandir" and consecration of "Ram Lalla" in the holy city of Ayodhya. This event dawns a new era of economic development of India.

Indian stock markets are beginning this week by overtaking Hong Kong markets and have become fourth largest markets in the world. Indian markets are already world's largest derivatives markets. 

Globally things were good and most of the stock markets around the world traded positively. Geopolitical events were mostly discarded by the markets. Locally result season has been pretty good and are expected to remain good.

Coming week is truncated, with only three sessions in monthly expiry week. Friday being holiday on account of Republic Day.

Let's try to decipher what lies in store for us for this truncated week.

As stated in the previous blog Nifty faced resistance around 22100 and fell sharply, losing more than 2% in a single session and took support around 21500-21600 range. You may read about it here Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 12th January 2024 (amitbajare.blogspot.com) For the coming week Nifty may remain volatile with a positive bias and may try to retest recent highs owing to short covering.

BankNifty fell sharply along with Nifty and has remained in a range there after. It should find strong support around 45700 and resistance around 46600-47000 range amid volatility.

Traders should look to buy on dips with a positive bias.

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 12th January 2024

Dear patrons, welcome to yet another edition of our weekly blog. It was a roller coaster ride on the bourses last week. Markets spent most part of the week consolidating in a narrow range and broke out of the range in style on Friday after IT giants Infosys and TCS declared good set of numbers.

The markets seem to have liked the results and the stocks rallied in anticipation of interest rate reduction around the globe. As the Dow theory says "Markets always discount all information". If interest rates do come down in near future, we are likely to see improved spending on IT by majority of the industry resulting in strong balance sheets for the IT companies.

Global markets were also in a range with some negative bias barring Japan, where the Nikkei made a 35 year high amidst global consolidation. Result season in India has kicked off in style and we expect it continue in the same vein. Indian economy looks to be in great shape and is likely to take off after gaining substantial speed over the last couple of years.

Let's see what transpired in the week gone by and try to analyze what lies in store for the coming week.

As stated in the last blog, Nifty spent some more time consolidating in the range of 21500 and 21750. We had stated in the last blog that Nifty may spend more time in a range before moving up. (You may read about it here Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 5th January 2024 (amitbajare.blogspot.com)). After spending time in a range Nifty broke out on Friday to make yet another lifetime high. We expect Indian markets to continue outperforming its peers on a consistent basis. Nifty may find some resistance around 22100-22200 range, while support lies around 21600-21400 range.

BankNifty has been subdued compared to the Nifty. Resistance for BankNifty lies around 47900-48000 range. It should find support around 47600-47400 range. BankNifty should move forward towards 49000 once it manages close above 48000.

As stated in the last blog, stock specific moves were observed in the midcap segment, with many stock hitting lifetime highs or 52-week highs.

Markets are looking in a buoyant mood with the start of Q3FY24 results season. It is advisable to look for buying opportunities in the markets. There should be ample opportunity to deploy funds and make good returns in near term.

Happy Investing!!!

"Money is the most egalitarian force in society. It confers power on whoever holds it"~ Roger Starr 

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Week Ending 5th January 2024

Dear patrons, first of all let me wish you a very happy and profitable 2024. Previous year has been great for wealth creation in the Indian markets and we expect this trend to continue with India remaining the fastest growing big economy in the world.

Last week most of the global markets has a truncated week on account of new year. Action was muted as festivities took over. Indian markets also remained in a range amid volatility. We had predicted in the last blog that Nifty should find support around 21500. During the fall in fist half of the week Nifty did touch 21500 and moved up. You may read it here (Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 29th December 2023 (amitbajare.blogspot.com),

India's GDP growth has been revised upwards to 7.3% from 7% previously. Manufacturing activity is expected to contribute handsomely to this growth which should propel the markets further in due course of time.

Let us look at what lies in store for the coming week.

As expected Nifty spent the last week in a range after a sharp up move last month. We expect the Nifty to spend some more time in consolidation mode before moving up again. A corrective move towards 21000 can not be ruled out. In fact, it would be very healthy for the markets to undergo some correction. Action should now shift from indices to stocks. Stock specific moves would be the flavor for next couple of weeks.

BankNifty has been moving in a larger range compared to Nifty. Move above 48300 should add to strength of BankNifty for a move towards 49000. Close below 47700 may take it towards 47400.

Traders should focus on stock specific moves rather than index, remain nimble footed and look to book profits on regular basis.

Happy Investing!!!

“The best way to measure your investing success is not by whether you’re beating the market but by whether you’ve put in place a financial plan and a behavioral discipline that are likely to get you where you want to go.”

Benjamin Graham

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.