Saturday, 30 December 2023

Week Ending 29th December 2023

Dear patrons, by the time this blog reaches you the year would almost be over. What an year for the markets this has been! Stellar performance by all indices over the last few months was witnessed. Almost all indices posted new lifetime highs. Benchmark Nifty has been on a roll, adding to wealth of investors every passing day.

Indian economy is also outperforming global peers by some distance. India's CAD (Current Account Deficit) has also narrowed to $ 8.3 bn from $ 9.2 bn Q on Q for July-September quarter. Decline in CAD was on account of lower merchandise trade deficit and higher services exports. Flow of good news on economy front has been incessant and so has been the rise of the Indian capital markets. We expect this trend to continue and gather more momentum every passing quarter with rising industrial output, once manufacturing also starts to contribute sizably to the economy. Good time is ahead for investors.

Globally not much action was witnessed as the Holiday fever took over. The US indices remained range bound with a positive bias.

In the last blog we had predicted that markets will remain volatile with a positive bias with the December expiry in sight. You may read about it here Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 22nd December 2023 (amitbajare.blogspot.com). As mentioned in the previous blog Nifty did end the year on a high and posted highest weekly closing. Once Nifty broke the barrier of 21600 the move towards 21800 was swift.

Let's see what charts have in store for us in the new year.


For the first time in the week Nifty did not make a higher high on Friday. Nifty looks fatigued on charts and RSI also suggests so. We may witness some fall in Nifty over next few sessions. 21500 should act as first support if indeed some correction sets in. If Nifty closes below 21500 further down move cannot be ruled out with strong support around 21000.


BankNifty is also showing some tiredness. RSI is also showing divergence as in case of Nifty. However, it should find first support near 48000 not far from current closing. Close below 47900 may open further downside for BankNifty with strong support around 47100-47000 range.

Time for traders to become cautious and follow strict stop losses. Booking profits whether big or miniscule and remaining cash ready looks to be the most prudent strategy for traders to make the most of any corrective move on the bourses.

Long term investors may get their portfolio's health checked and look to switch from underperforming stocks to outperforming ones and stay invested.

Happy Investing!!!

Wish you a very happy and profitable new year!!!

"I am very opinionated and sometimes a very irritating character but, I have learnt that the quest to learn is a journey, not a destination." ~ Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Friday, 22 December 2023

Week Ending 22nd December 2023

Dear patrons, yet another stellar week has passed on the bourses, with the benchmark index posting new "All-Time-High". It has been a dominant display by the bulls for yet another week, barring an exception of the mid week session where, Nifty lost close to 2% witnessing year's biggest intraday fall. Bulls. however took charge in late hours during the penultimate session and continued to take markets higher.

There was a sharp fall on Wednesday, wherein Nifty touched an "All-Time-High" and slid quickly and sharply. A number of attributions were given for the fall. RBI's announcement that Indian inflation was above its expectation and may need some more time to come down might have spooked the markets, leading to a healthy fall. On the other hand IMF restoring faith in Indian economy and declaring India to be fastest growing large economy restored some faith and we saw markets recover on following days.

Globally, there is optimism that interest rates world over may stabilize and we may witness rates coming down sooner than later. This optimism lead to a rally in almost all the developed as well as emerging markets.

Another good news from the world of investment is that India Weightage increased from 7.7% to 16.6% in MSCI EM. This FPI money will get pumped in Nifty 100 stocks. Which can trigger a big rally in Large Cap & Larger Midcaps.

Let's now have a look at the charts and try to figure out what lies in store for the last week of the year.


We can clearly see Nifty recovering from a fall in the above chart. We had suggested that Nifty has resistance around 21500-21600 level and strong support around 21000 level. Nifty made a high of 21593 and fell sharply towards 21000 on Wednesday, follow up fall on Thursday saw Nifty touching sub 21000 level and recover sharply and settling the week comfortably above 21300. You may read it here (Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 15th December 2023 (amitbajare.blogspot.com).

For the coming week, we expect Nifty to remain volatile owing to monthly expiry of derivatives contracts. Moves on either side may be sharp but the bias remains positive. We expect Nifty to end the year on a High. Also next week being a truncated week may see higher volatility.


BankNifty on the other hand remained subdued with intraday volatility remaining high. It has closed marginally below its support on daily charts, but bias on BankNifty also remains positive. 

Indian markets are expected to remain bullish and surge ahead. Profitable times lie ahead for the investors.

Stay Invested!!!

“Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.” – By Paul Samuelson

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Saturday, 16 December 2023

Week Ending 15th December 2023

Dear patrons; it has been a stupendous week for the markets. The Nifty scaled new highs everyday shattering record after record, So vicious has been the charge by the Bulls that Bears are nowhere to be found, paving way for an astonishing rise of around 500 points in a week.

The rally on the bourses was effected by a strong in flow of good news on economic front. Firstly the central bank, RBI held status quo in interest rates and revised the GDP growth upwards. We are likely at the peak of the interest rate cycle and the market expects rates to come down in near future, leading to even further rise in the GDP growth. CPI & IIP data was also released during the week. CPI, although above RBI's comfort level, is still manageable and likely to cool off with Kharif crop. IIP data was great booster for the market. At the peak of interest rates IIP has been keeping a fast pace upwards. In case interest rates do come down in near future it will lead to further rise in industrial production providing further impetus to rise in the equity markets.

Globally, the Federal Reserve in the US also kept rates unchanged and was dovish in its commentary for the future rate cycle. US markets also expect rates to come down in near future providing impetus to growth in the World's largest economy. If rates in the US do come down as expected, it should lead to more fund flows to emerging markets like India.

Let's have a look at what happened on the charts last week

Nifty, as is evident from the above figure is at an all time high and in no resistance zone. Every dip in the Nifty is being bought into. As we had stated in the last blog Nifty still remains "Buy-On-Dips". Nifty remains in a very strong up trend and is likely to inch forward. Support for Nifty is around 21000 and resistance around 21500-21600. Up trend in Nifty remains intact till the time it closes below 20500. 
BankNifty, which was the leader in the last run lagged behind in the first part of this up trend but more than made up for the laggardness in the last couple of weeks to post closing above 48000 level. BankNifty has also entered an uncharted territory and is in no resistance zone. Support for BankNifty is placed around 47100-47000. and it may face resistance around 48500-48600.

All in all first fortnight of December has been a dream come true rally for the Bulls and investors have become richer every passing day. We expect many such moves in coming years and we should see Nifty becoming a 6 digit index in a decade or so.

Till such time keep accumulating good quality stocks.

Happy Investing!!!

"Trend in the market remains unchanged until and unless clear reversal signals occur" ~ Charles Dow (Dow Theory)

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.

Saturday, 9 December 2023

Week Ending 8th December 2023

Dear patrons, as I write this edition of weekly blog, we are sitting pretty at an all time high on almost all indices. The Indian markets have shown tremendous strength over the last month or so. Benchmark index Nifty posted consistent gains on all but one trading session over the last week and added almost 3.5%.

Election results in 5 states were in favor of the ruling BJP, which was welcomed by the bulls. These elections were treated as a precursor to the general elections next year, and the ruling party getting a thumping majority is good sign for the future.

On the economic front, RBI's Monetary Policy Committee announced its bimonthly policy, where in interest rates have been kept unchanged and the governor was pretty dovish in his stance for the future. Indian economy has been resilient over the tumultuous period of pandemic, wars and slow-downs. The RBI has been very proactive in its approach and navigated very smartly through this period. We believe we are at the peak of interest rate cycle and should soon see rates lowering. Lower rates should provide further impetus to an already buzzing economy, propelling it towards newer highs in coming years. Fall in crude oil prices also augurs well for the Indian economy as it eases a lot of import bill.

Global markets have been quiet for some time now. Indian markets are outperforming peers by a fair margin. We believe that this outperformance will continue in time to come and a massive realignment will take place in global order.

Let us have a look at what happened last week and try to figure out what is in store for next week.


It was one way traffic in the markets last week. Bulls made a mess of bears and catapulted the benchmark Nifty towards 21000 from around 20000 in just 5 sessions. We are in an uncharted territory on the Nifty and some resistance may be faced around 21000. Market remains "Buy-On-Dips". It may be a prudent idea to book some profit and stay on cash for the time being and wait for some corrective action to reenter. 


BankNifty, which was lagging till last week was a front runner last week, outperforming the Nifty and making a new all-time high. BankNifty is also in an uncharted territory and may rise some more. 46000 appears to be support. BankNifty also remains "Buy-On-Dips".

Interesting time lie ahead for the Indian investors, as the indices climb newer highs. Traders have to be judicious in selection of stocks. We are cautiously optimistic on the market. Future looks bright.

Stay Invested!!!

“The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.” ~ Warren Buffett

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.


Saturday, 2 December 2023

Week Ending 1st December 2023

Dear patrons, the markets were in a buoyant mood over the last week, ending a streak of lull of a week or so. Nifty scaled a new All Time High as predicted in our previous blog (you may read it here Weekly Market Update: Week Ending 24th November 2023 (amitbajare.blogspot.com)). As we had predicted markets moved up swiftly clocking gains of over 2% in a truncated week.

Global cues were robust over the previous weekend. Domestically very good set of GDP Growth numbers added oil to the already red-hot markets. India's GDP grew by 7.6% in Q2FY24, making it the fastest growing big economy in the world. It was a positive surprise for the markets and the bulls took full advantage of this good news propelling the markets to new ATH. India is estimated to grow at 6.5% for FY24.

Although Nifty achieved an ATH, the BankNifty remained some distance away from its ATH. The markets are expectantly waiting for election results. Favorable outcome in the elections may lead the market to newer highs and any divergence in results may lead to a small correction.

Let us have a look at the charts and try to figure out what lies in store for next week.


Nifty made a new ATH last and is in an uncharted zone, RSI, however is showing a divergence, which, points towards a probable corrective move. In case Nifty moves down it should find support in 20000-19800 range. On the upside, we may see some more traction and profit taking may emerge after election result euphoria dies down. 


BankNifty has been underperforming compared to Nifty. It has remained subdued in the last month, managing to gain some ground only in the last week. 44000 happens to be a strong support for BankNifty. Sustaining below 44000 BankNifty may drift towards 43500.

All in all traders should be cash ready and look for opportunities to buy in case of any dips in the markets. Till the time Nifty is above 19400 market remains Buy-On-Dips.

Happy Investing!!!

"The biggest risk of all is not taking one." ~ Mellody Hobson

P.S.: This communication is for educational purpose only and does not recommend buying or selling any stock or index. Trade at your own risk.